Well it is looking to be a relatively quiet June for the start of our 2023 North American Hurricane Season. Although we have had some subtropical development in the Atlantic basin earlier in the month, the past few days have been pretty calm with that trending looking likely to continue for the rest of the week.
Let’s take a look at why its expected to be a pretty calm week ahead.
Current Tropical Environment
As you can see from the satellite imagery above, there is clear skies over much of the lower subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Honestly the more interesting part is what is happening across the entire East Coast extending down to Louisiana. But this a Tropical Outlook! So let’s take a closer look that the conditions that will limiting any development of tropical cyclones for the next week.
El Nino conditions are also present for this season and is expected to continuing strengthen throughout the year into the Winter season. Thus, chances of tropical cyclone formation is less likely compared to under La Nina conditions in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Despite this, we are still expecting this season to be relatively average in terms of numbers of tropical cyclones developing.
Significant wind shear will dominate the South Central US Region that will extend through the Gulf and Mexico down to the Caribbean Sea. Much of the Atlantic Ocean will also experiencing the same with only a small area of low shear near the high pressure system along the Central Eastern Atlantic. This is less than ideal for any cyclone formation which is why the National Hurricane Center is not expecting any disturbances to arise within the next week in the Atlantic and Gulf.
However, off the southern coast of Mexico will be one area of interest to look out for over the next coming days. This large swath of low wind shear will have the greatest chance of generating cyclone formation over the next coming week.
Looking Further Ahead
Dry air will persist along with this high pressure system through the lower Central Atlantic as the Upper level jet begins to weaken on Wednesday. The Gulf is also expected to remain pretty dry while we could see some possible development along our area of interest off the coast of Mexico if we see some more moist air get mixed in over the next few days.
Looking further out into the weekend, it looks like there is going to be a development of a ridge across the the center of the Atlantic as well as over the South Central US that will hinder any cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico over the course of the coming week, continuing this trend of minimal activity.
Will a Hurricane hit Florida in 2 weeks? Probably Not
And as we continue to look further ahead on what to expect for the rest of this hurricane season, it is important to remember to use and interpret models correctly. This GFS forecast has a hurricane structure hitting Florida on the 20th. But at forecast hour 318, this model is really not reliable for giving an accurate weather report for 2 weeks from now. At these extended ranges, this model actually tends to develop these wildly intense but highly improbable storms. In the Winter, it’s fun to see when the GFS is predicting when the next Nor’easter will destroy the East Coast.
With no tropical systems currently active or expected to organize over the next week, there is no threat of severe tropical weather affecting the United States. However, as always, be prepared for the risk of hurricane development. While a devastating hurricane is not going to spring up overnight, hurricanes can develop quickly and undergo processes such as “Rapid Intensification” where a tropical cyclone greatly strengthens in maximum sustained wind speed over a 24-hour period so it is always important to be alert to your local weather office. Especially if you live along the coastal region, having evacuation plans in the threat of a hurricane could save lives
Conclusions
While we are still early into the season, we are starting cool, calm, and collected this June with strong shear and ridges controlling the Gulf and Atlantic. With conditions persisting throughout the week, let’s see how it will be until our first hurricane. For now, only the Central Pacific is only possible area of concern for now.
