Summertime rains will be a nice relief from the heat to many this week, as daily chances of rain will be possible along with temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. An approaching cold front will continue to sag southward and eventually stall over the Gulf coast. This will help to keep rain chances up throughout the week, as the moist tropical air interacts with the boundary. Late in the week, a more formidable cold front is slated to punch south all the way to the coast, which possibly may bring more dry air in from the north and suppress rain chances except for areas near or along the coast.
Synoptically, a bubble of high pressure is sitting over the south central and southwest United States, while our region continues to experience northwesterly flow aloft being situated on the east side of the ridge. This has allowed for a cold front to make its way through the area and help establish the rain potential. The front will linger around and stall somewhere close to the I-10 corridor. Along with the stalling of the front, a weak upper-level trough will be anchored along the coast of Louisiana. In association with this, a surface low will develop on the coast and help to initiate storm development across the gulf coast states through the middle of next week. A second cold front will then come through late in the week and will help to taper off rain chances by next weekend.
As far as temperatures are concerned, today and Monday at least look to be the last days with potential triple digit heat indexes. High temperatures will hover in the upper 80s and low 90s throughout the week, with some places potentially only reaching the upper 70s to low 80s due to rain showers or cloud cover. This trend will uphold through the week and weekend, with the aforementioned rain chances as well as the second cold front on the way.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain scattered throughout the week and weekend. Most of the rain will be influenced on the mesoscale level (fronts, outflow boundaries, etc.), with the exception being the developing upper-level low on the coast. This low will help increase the odds and coverage of rainfall throughout the area. Once this feature dissipates and the second cold front enters late next week, drier air will slowly take down the chances for rain by the weekend.
Day to Day Forecast
Sunday
Partly cloudy, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures in the mid 70s. Heat indices may reach up to 100°F. Chance of rain 80%.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with showers and thunderstorms possible. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures in the mid 70s. Heat indices may reach up to 100°F. Chance of rain 40%.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday
Partly cloudy, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the mid 80s. Low temperatures in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with showers and thunderstorms possible. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday
Partly cloudy, with a stray shower or thunderstorm possible. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
