It is a special Weekend Post! I’m up early after my Sister’s Wedding (she had the long night of celebrating with her friends, her older brother called it a night at midnight) and I was looking over the latest data and a few things stood out to me, so much so that I wanted to make a special post on the weekend.
It isn’t that something significant or crazy is happening in the atmosphere. But rather that this next weather patterns seems to be one of those ‘Changing of the Guard’ type moments in the year where the atmosphere switches things up and we get into the next type of pattern that will mostly hold for the rest of the season.
Summer is back…. sort of
Well, mostly.
While the above image is pulled from the European model, most models that are out there show a very similar story. A ridge in the east – some showing it off the coast and into the Atlantic – and a trough in the Rockies.
This isn’t necessarily a “Summer” pattern by any means, but more of a “Spring” pattern that will set the Southern Plains up for a decent shot for severe weather for a few days in a row. And the SPC has noted that, issueing a Slight Risk for severe weather across parts of TExas, Oklahoma and Kansas for the next few days.
BUT! The reason it is a ‘Changing of the Guard’ moment is that despite it being a ‘Spring’ pattern overall, it also signifies the return of the onshore flow from the Gulf for the Gulf Coast states. And that onshore flow is going to give rise to the return of afternoon showers and storms. Nearly every day. A very summer-like pattern.
And it will be doing so in late May. And by the time this pattern starts to break down, it looks to be early June. And by then, the region is firmly entrenched into Summer.
But even THAT has a caveat!
There is some question about where the puzzle pieces (the high pressure and low pressure) set up. Farther one way or the other way and it may fence posts for where these showers and storms may develop. So while things do look a bit soggy for South Mississippi, it may not be a complete washout each day depending on how things shake out in the atmosphere up around 20,000ft.
Day-by-Day Forecast
Today
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Monday
Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Monday Night
A 20-percent chance of showers after midnight. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy with a 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. The chance of rain 10-percent.
Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with a 10-percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s.
Friday
Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. The chance of rain 20-percent.
A quick note on the Tropics
Things are getting “more active” in the tropics within the model guidance, too. And before you get too concerned, “more active” is a relative term. The tropics are “more active” than “dead as a doornail” which is what they’ve been since last November.
The GFS computer weather model has shown something trying to spin up near the Gulf as we head through next weekend. It has been showing this for the last 48 to 72 hours.
The good news is that no other model is showing this type of situation. And any May Tropical System would likely be more of a rain producer than anything else.
But it is another good reminder to double check that Hurricane Preparedness Kit, for sure!
We’ve been in a ‘nearly everyday afternoon showers and thunderstorms’ pattern for the last 6 months. Looked at Tidbits this morning and, unless something has changed, I didn’t see a tropical system next week. I will check it again.