Looking over the latest data this morning, it shows the front on the way and showing up about midday today with showers and thunderstorms zipping across the area between 11am and 4pm.
The HRRR model shown above it probably a bit too dry and doesn’t develop enough coverage along the front as it passes, but I do think it has the timing correct. As storms pass, most of the stronger storms may feature some heavy rain, plenty of lightning, wind gusts up to 45mph, and small hail. While a tornado can’t be completely ruled out, this isn’t the type of setup that produces significant tornadoes.
The SPC has tagged the area with a Marginal Risk for severe weather, but only one or two storms will get to this strength. And even that feels like a bit of a stretch. The main concern with any severe storm is going to be storms that have wind gusts up to 60mph.
That sets the stage for a much drier weekend – both from precipitation and humidity! Take a look at these dewpoints in the coming days. We go from the 70s today (rather humid) to the 50s by Sunday (rather nice)
And if you are lucky enough to have Monday off, too, it will be a nice day across the area with lower humidity, too. In fact, the Heat Index (when we add Temperature and Humidity to give a ‘feels like’ temperature) on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.
And we don’t ahve to earn it with any rain! Take a look at the forecast sounding. Usually, when we are talking about rainfall, the green and red lines are really close together on this chart.
Look how far apart they are!
How often can you say that in South Mississippi in late May?
Day-by-Day Forecast
Today
Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain 60 percent.
Tonight
A 40 percent chance of showers in the evening. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.SaturdayMostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
Memorial Day
Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.
Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance of rain 60 percent.
Just the scenario I was hoping for for this weekend and Memorial Day. Everyone should have Monday off. In ‘my’ opinion, any business that doesn’t close for such an important day should really take an inventory of themselves.