The latest from the National Hurricane Center is out this morning and there has been a slight shift in the impacts toward the east. No much, but slight enough that some of the folks closer to Jackson may not be in the bullseye as much.
Here is the latest forecast cone from the NHC:
With this system, it is important to remember that a vast majority of the impacts will be on the eastern half. of the storm and extend well outward from the center.
That is why the NHC has coordinated with the WPC and the SPC (as they always do) to highlight the different concerns and threats to the region.
The model guidance is finally starting to catch up to the humans, and is now taking this thing a bit closer to the official forecast track from the NHC. The interesting thing is that the guidance also shows PTC-3 weakening and the restrengthening.
This is likely due to the projected path taking it off the coast of the Carolinas. Once this moves inland, the chances that it continues to strengthen are very, very low. This is because for tropical systems to gain strength they need to be over warm bodies of water. As much as it has rained over Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama during the last few months, it may feel like a large body of water… but it isn’t to a tropical system.
The Tropical Threat Index on this system is now at a 2.7.
Rainfall is still the main concern, though coastal communities may have to deal with some inland flooding due to storm surge. Wind, while a concern, doesn’t meet the 60mph threshold for the scale. Wind gusts will actually be closer to 45mph.
With all of the rain that is expected, a 45mph wind gust can still bring down the occasional tree, but widespread downed trees are not anticipated. Because of that, widespread power outages are not anticipated either.
Day-to-Day Forecast
PTC-3 influence begins….
Today
Increasing clouds with a chance for showers and storms as the outer bands of PTC-3 starting to move through. Highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy and breezy to windy. Thunderstorms and tropical downpours possible. Lows in the lower 70s. East wind between 10 and 30mph, gusting to 40 at times – particularly closer to the coast. The chance of rain 80-percent.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with passing showers and tropical downpours, especially in the morning.. Highs around 80. East winds 10 to 12 mph in the morning turning back to the west by afternoon. The chance of rain 80-percent.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with lingering showers possible. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with summertime-style showers and storms possible. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain 50-percent.
PTC-3 influence ends…
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Monday
Partly cloudy with more afternoon storms possible. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. .
Tuesday
Increasing clouds as a late-season cold front tries to move through. Showers and storms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. The chance of rain 70-percent.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Lows around 70.
Wednesday
Clearing skies, but afternoon storms still possible. Highs in the mid 80s. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 70.
Thursday
Partly cloudy and a bit drier. Still can’t rule out an afternoon storm. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance for rain is around 20-percent.
If they keep pushing it eastward, by tonight, it’ll be threatening Bermuda. There ‘is’ such a thing as over-adjusting.