South Mississippi Forecast: 6/25/21

While I mentioned yesterday that these storms were going to be proficient rain producers, I didn’t think that type of flooding would be quite as widespread. I hope the water has receded for everyone. Just goes to show how humid the environment is right now.

PWAT map shows the moisture surging into the area fromt eh Gulf // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The above map is from Sunday afternoon. I wanted to point this out because there is a chance that this air is going to be near-record for how much moisture is in the air.

PWAT Climatology // Courtesy: spc.noaa.gov

The record for June 28th at 00z – which is June 27th around 6pm for us locally – up at the Jackson NWS is 2.08 and the model guidance shows 2.04 possible. And anything about about a 1.25 is “humid” and anything above a 1.75 is pretty gross. The highest I can remember seeing it for south Mississippi is about a 2.5 and I want to say that was with one of our tropical systems a few years ago.

The humid air mass that is in place will continue to usher in storms with the potential to drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time. So a lot like yesterday, be prepared for flash flooding again today.

And if you come across water on the road, find another way around.



The Tropics

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area off the coast of Africa.

Courtesy: nhc.noaa.gov

But this system is still too far south and moving over cooler water in the future, so the chance that it bothers anyone in the coming days is very low (NHC says only a 30-percent chance of development).



Day-by-Day Forecast

Today
Partly cloudy with more afternoon seabreeze storms possible. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance of rain 30-percent.

Tonight
Partly cloudy with a few lingering showers before midnight. Lows around 70.

Saturday
Passing clouds with afternoon storms possible. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain 40-percent.

Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 70.

Sunday
Hit and miss afternoon ‘summertime’ storms. Otherwise partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance for rain is around 60-percent.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

Monday
Partly cloudy with more afternoon storms. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance of rain 30-percent.

Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 70.

Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance for showers and storms. Highs in the upper 80s.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 70.

Wednesday
Passing clouds with a 50-percent chance for storms. Highs in the upper 80s.

Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

Thursday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance of rain 30- percent.



Graphical Forecast

The graphic below shows the range of high temperatures for today, the peak potential Heat Index this afternoon, the overnight low for that night and into the next morning. It also has a little icon for what to expect the sky to look like.

I’m not sure how often I’ll be able to include this. I will try to do it daily. I was hoping it wouldn’t take too much time, but this morning it took about five minutes to produce and upload. And to be completely honest, there are days I don’t have five minutes in the morning. So perhaps this becomes an evening thing! We will see.

For now, enjoy!



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.

One thought on “South Mississippi Forecast: 6/25/21

  1. The extra graphic, where it shows the heat index, is great! Try to include it as often as you can. Last night, between 7:30 and 8:30, we got a flood of rain!

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