So, I’m not going to listen to anything that the models have to say about the next 48 hours because, frankly, during the last 48 hours they haven’t been all that great. So! Looking at the big picture, and just taking satellite data I’m going to try to make a forecast for the next 48 hours. Beyond that, I will use model data.
Given the current pattern of a trough draped across northern Texas and Oklahoma and back up into the Ohio River Valley and a very moist airmass in place across the south, I’m beting more showers and stoms will be possible tomorrow.
Then an upper-level low may shift to the west across the Gulf and help to spark more showers and storms Tuesday
Why has it been so rainy?
I’ve received this question a lot lately. Rightfully! We have been in quite the riany pattern across the Gulf Coast – from Houston to Pensacola. And while I don’t have a “good” answer yet, I do have a running hypothesis.
I tweeted about this the other day, in fact.
The top map is the actual precip that has fallen. The map on the bottom is a combination of a ton of teleconnections (I’ll do a whole post on these one day, but in general these a large-scale generalized patterns in the atmosphere) averaged out and the compared against past situations. And generally, based on nine teleconnections, the pattern during the last 90 days is one that should leave the Gulf Coast “above average” for precipitation.
But to the extent that it has been? Holy smokes! No, this is pretty crazy. And – I’m being completely honest here – likely a symptom of our changing climate.
I had one person ask, “just how much rain have we gotten? Seems like enough for a year!”
So I looked. And the person was almost right.
Looking at the maps above, you can see that some sections of South Mississippi have picked up nearly 200-percent of their yearly rainfall. And since we are halfway through the year, that means there are some areas that have already picked up nearly a year’s-worth of rain. And it is July 12th.
Generally across the board, the area is somewhere between 150- and 200-percent of normal. And that is crazy.
So, Nick, when will it stop raining?
We really do need a pattern shift and in order to get that we need some kind of anomalous weather event to occur somewhere. A hurricane getting pulled into the SW Monsoon would likely help. Or even a typhoon recurving past Japan and getting yanked toward Alaska might do it, too.
But until then, we are stuck in this pattern.
Daily Timeline
A quick reminder that this timeline is just showing when a better/worse chance for sun versus storms. There will be times that it rains when there is a better chance for sun, and other times when it will be sunny when there is a better chance for rain.
I’m far from perfect with this stuff, because summer tiem storms are inherently difficult to predict – but this is my best effort for you guys!
Day-to-Day Forecast
Monday
Mostly cloudy with a chance for afternoon storms. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Monday Night
Passing clouds. Lows in the lower 70s.
Tuesday
Partly sunny with afternoon storms possible. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Wednesday
Passing clouds with storms possible. Highs around 90. Chance for rain around 30-percent.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Thursday
Partly sunny with more storms possible. Highs around 90. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Friday
Partly cloudy with afternoon storms possible. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Graphical Forecast
Thank you