A front is going to try to shove through the region and likely lay-up along th coast or just out into the Gulf. That will give out chance for rain a boost over the next 48 hours. Right now, it looks like a pretty decent shot for rain today (my numbers are likely not high enough, honestly) and tomorrow.
Today, even the Weather Prediction Center highlighted the area with the potential for flash flooding. A Slight Risk for Flash Flooding is in effect until 7am tomorrow morning.
Then, starting Wednesday, I wouldn’t be surprised if the NHC starts monitoring a little area along that front for development. it’ll be low, really low. But they’ve been flagging just about everything this summer, so I figure they will probably flag this.
Let me say, right now, given the available data any sort of development is very, very, very unlikely. But if the front pulls up stationary and a little area of low-level low pressure can develop, it will be worth watching.
The good news is that it will be so close to shore, that even if it tries to do something, it won’t really matter. It won’t have time to get its act together.
That will happen between Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. While around South Mississippi, things dry out and go back to just afternoon storms.
Daily Timeline
Like I was saying above, my numbers are probably a bit too low. I do think today will feature better chances for rain between 11a and 7p, but some of these storms may linger all the way through midnight.
Tomorrow, full disclosure, it probably going to be a bit wetter than I’m letting on in this graphic. I think stuff will be hit-and-miss for most of the day, so it is tough to nail down specifics, that is why it may look like there will be more sun than clouds. But I can assure you there will be a chance for rain from 10a through 8p. But the best bet, and the time where I can promise you there is a much better chance for rain as opposed to sunshine is between 1p and 5p.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Increasing clouds through the day with a 70-percent chance for afternoon storms. Highs around 90.
Tonight
Rain ending by midnight with clearing skies overnight. Lows in the lower 70s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance for storms. Highs in the upper 80s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 70.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 70.
Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for afternoon storms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Friday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance for storms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
Saturday
Passing clouds with a 40-percent chance for storms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday
Passing clouds with a 30-percent chance for afternoon storms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Graphical Forecast
