With all this talk about the tropics, the Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the area for the potential for severe weather this afternoon.
Yup.
As it notes in the graphic above, the timeline for storms is between 2p and 6p tonight. The threat for severe weather is mainly just brief localized flash flooding and wind gusts exceeding 60mph. But also keep a look out for heavy rain, frequent lightning, and perhaps some very small hail.
The tornado threat is very, very, very low.
From the SPC
DISCUSSION…
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with the early development of cumulus fields over MS and AL. A weak mid-level vorticity maximum located over the TN Valley is forecast to slowly move to the south-southwest near the MS/AL border this afternoon. Late morning surface temperatures have warmed to near 90 deg F with upper 70s deg F dewpoints.
Modifying the 7am Jackson, MS raob for 10am surface conditions (90/75) yields 3700 J/kg MLCAPE and a lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio near 18 g/kg. A belt of strong 25-30 kt northerly 500 mb flow was sampled by the 7am Jackson, MS raob and more recent Jackson and Columbus MS WSR-88D VAD data.
Slightly stronger flow was noted at the Birmingham, AL VAD. Model guidance shows the development of multicells beginning by early afternoon over northeast MS and northwest AL. Upscale growth into a few linear clusters is expected as these clusters move to the south-southwest during the afternoon and intensify.
Steep low-level lapse rates and the aforementioned moisture will be favorable for water-loaded downdrafts.
It appears the greatest concentration of 50-70 mph gusts will focus over central MS and perhaps into far west-central AL during the 2-6pm period.
Courtesy: spc.noaa.gov
