As if one this virus wasn’t enough, Mother Nature looked at the Calendar and remembered that it is still Spring.
Looking at the latest data, there is still a chance for severe weather across parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast next Tuesday and into Wednesday. An area of low pressure looks to close off and slide from West TExas across parts of the Mid South and up the each coast. As it passes by to the north, the Gulf Coast and Southeast will be in a prime region for the development of thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather.
A quick note about this weekend
This weekend, it looks like severe weather will be possible – but much farther north.
A Moderate Risk, a 4-out-of-5 on the 1-to-5 scale where “5” is the highest risk for severe weather, has been issued for parts of Illinois. A Slight (2-out-of-5) Marginal Risk (1-out-of-5) is in effect for Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and Arkansas.
This far south, it looks like the front won’t pack as much of a punch, and the overall threat for severe weather is lower.
On to Tuesday!
It looks like the next system – especially in the upper levels – will move through quite a bit closer to the area. Because of that there will be more available energy for the individual thunderstorms to use. It is still too early for specifics, but a timeline is starting to come together a bit better. It looks like this will be a Late Monday night through and Wednesday morning event for the Southeast. That said, the ECMWF model has, once again, sped things up a tad. Moving the line of storms through Louisiana on Monday night, and through Mississippi by Tuesday at midday.
So the timeline still needs some ironing out.
The Karrie Meter map highlights the specific area of higher concern, but since this is only pulling from one model (the GFS), I tend to think that it may not be telling the whole story.
Notice how it shows a little cluster of higher numbers moving from Arkansas into northern Mississippi and into northern Alabama and Tennessee. We will have to see if this pans out, but I don’t think the cluster of concern will be for such a small area.
The Analogs
Show a different story. With a bullseye of activity in southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. And an area of general increased concern across parts of southeastern Mississippi central Alabama and western Georgia and the Florida panhandle.
This seems like a better estimation of the true threat. While it may not be as confined to a smaller area like this, I tend to disagree with the GFS model that the only threat is going to be stretched across parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi and Alabama, and Tennessee.
Bottom Line
We are still in the ‘wait and see’ phase. Like I always say: “Once we get to about 72 hours out, then we can start to be more specific.”
For now, just know that you will need to check back in with the weather forecast this weekend and as we head into next week to make sure you know what to expect. Given the Coronavirus, too, you may need to make changes to your severe weather plan. So take some time this weekend to double-check your plan and make sure that you know what you would do if a Severe Thunderstorm Warning or Tornado Warning was issued for your area.
