Gulf of Mexico moisture will be increasing during the next few days as Tropical Storm Nicholas (not me) moves north toward Texas. This system, along with a lingering boundary, will result in an influx of very humid air from Houston to Panama City.
I have a slight, back of my mind, concern that this may end up like Tropical Storm Cindy for somewhere farther east of the “main impact area” for Tropical Storm Nicholas.
A quick reminder, that Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near Lake Charles, Louisiana in 2017. But most ofthe rain fell across Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle.
Does this mean Mississippi will see most of the rain from Tropical Storm Nicholas?
No.
But, I don’t think that folks in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama can simply track Nicholas as only a Texas problem. It may become a “problem for Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, too. Just more indirectly.
Here is a look at the PWAT values early Tuesday morning.
The purple areas are PWAT values high enough to produce greater than 1″ per hour rainfall rates in any storm. And in come cases high enough for greater than 2″ per hour rainfall rates.
So, anywhere within that purple area, if any storms train, over the same places for more than an hour you could see brief flash flooding develop. And if the same places see repeated storms over them, that flash flooding may become more widespread and prolonged.
At this point, though, we don’t have the ability within the resolution of the model data to forecast a “yay” or “nay” on who – specifically – sees that type of training. But we can highlight the general average precip over the broader area.
And that shows that, generally, 1″ to 4″ of rain across the MSALLA area is expected. But, in cases like this, I would suggest taking that 1″ to 4″ and then adding another 3″ to the “top end potential” too.
And keep in mind, that is the rainfall totals through next Sunday night. So, all of this won’t fall in one day (thankfully).
Day-to-Day Forecast
Monday
A mixture of high and mid-level clouds. Highs in the lower 80s. The chance of rain 40-percent. Maximum rainfall totals, up to one inch.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. Temperatures in the lower 70s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. The chance of rain 60-percent. Maximum rainfall totals, up to two inches.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Wednesday
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. The chance of rain 70-percent. Maximum rainfall totals, up to two inches.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. The chance for rain is around 30-percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with passing storms. Highs in the lower 80s. The chance of rain 60-percent. Maximum rainfall totals, up to one inch.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 70s.
Friday
Partly cloudy with more storms possible. Highs in the mid 80s. The chance of rain 50-percent.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Saturday
Partly cloudy with storms possible. Highs in the mid 80s. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
