The SPC is considering extending the Tornado Watch for south Mississippi:
SUMMARY…Threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will potentially focus over southeastern Louisiana and parts of southern Mississippi later tonight. A replacement watch may be considered prior to the 07Z expiration of Watches 111/113.
DISCUSSION…An expansive mesoscale convective system continues late this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley. While a considerable precipitation shield over northern Louisiana and central/northern Mississippi has limited the northward progress of a warm front, deep/moist southerly flow across the warm sector is maintaining robust convective elements within the broader system.
There has been a relative lull in severe reports recently, but a modest uptick in the potential for damaging winds (and perhaps a couple line-embedded tornadoes) may occur. With increasing large-scale ascent associated with an approaching impulse, cells should organize into a more focused meridional line from southeastern Louisiana northward into Mississippi. MLCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg will likely support a squall line that advances towards the central Gulf Coast through the overnight. Line-parallel low-level shear vectors suggest primarily an occasional damaging-wind threat with this line. However, the amplitude of low-level shear may also favor small-scale embedded circulations. A replacement watch could be considered prior to the 07Z expiration of Watches.
