SPC increases severe risk for South Mississippi on Saturday

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk for severe weather in South Mississippi on Saturday to a Slight Risk. That is a two on the one-to-five scale where five is the highest risk for severe weather.

This is up from a Marginal Risk, issued earlier Thursday.

Earlier Thursday, the 12z model data was used to calculate a Karrie Meter number at 3.79. That is just under the Slight Risk limit. The 00z is still coming in and will be calculated Friday morning after 9am.

Here is the latest from the SPC…

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

Valid 191200Z – 201200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA…

…SUMMARY…
Scattered storms, some severe, are expected across parts of the Gulf Coast states on Saturday with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

…Synopsis…
A potent shortwave trough will continue east out of TX and into the Lower MS Valley during the day with low pressure moving from eastern AR across KY and TN. A cold front will trail southward from the low, progressing across MS and AL during the day and into northwest GA by 00Z. Southerly surface winds will allow low 60s F dewpoints to return north, with strong veering winds with height favoring severe storms despite marginal instability.

Overnight, the surface low will move off the Delmarva with the cold front affecting eastern NC into Sunday morning. Here, instability for strong or severe storms is forecast to remain mostly offshore.

…Southeast LA…MS…AL…FL Panhandle…Southwest GA…
Ongoing storms across the Lower MS Valley Saturday morning are forecast to consolidate along the cold front into central MS by 18Z, and continue eastward into AL through afternoon. Large looping hodographs combined with sufficient instability will favor line segments, possibly QLCS in nature, or perhaps a supercell or two capable of a brief tornado. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat across the Slight Risk area with 850 mb winds of 50-60 kt. By evening, as the front progresses into GA, the risk is expected to wane as instability becomes less, and large-scale lift shifts northeast of the area. Still, a few damaging wind gusts may occur into GA.

…MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD…
Tornado: 5% – Slight
Wind: 15% – Slight
Hail: 5% – Marginal