I know how this may feel to a lot of you who struggle to fight off Severe Weather Anxiety. It probably feels like a ton of bricks just fell on your chest. For everyone else, you may be looking out the window to partly sunny skies and birds chirping and think, ‘what storms?’
But the Storm Prediction Center doesn’t issue a “High Risk” very often. The last time Mississippi was included in a high Risk from the SPC was April 28, 2014.
From the SPC
The High Risk includes a sliver of the northern counties of the Pine Belt – Simpson, Smith, Jasper and Clarke. A Moderate Risk is in effect for most of the rest of the Pine Belt. Except the southern half of Pearl River, Stone, and George counties, those are under an Enhanced Risk.
Remember though that these outlooks are for ‘within 25 miles of a point’ so there aren’t hard cut-offs. And the overall difference in potential conditions between a Moderate Risk and a High Risk are negligible. You can think of it as the difference between a summer day that is 95 and humid and 100 and humid – both are not great.
A snippet from the SPC Discussion:
…Primary tornado outbreak this afternoon into tonight…
The ongoing convection across eastern AR/western TN/northern MS will tend to reinforce the surface warm front near the TN/MS border through early afternoon. The northeast TX and eastern OK bands of storms will overspread the Ark-La-Tex and the remainder of central AR through mid-late morning, with the potential to produce damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.
In the wake of this convection, some air mass recovery is expected across AR, back to the surface cyclone near the AR/OK/MO border intersection by midday to early afternoon. Thereafter, surface-based thunderstorm development is expected along the wind shift from near Shreveport to Fort Smith, and storms will spread eastward across AR/LA through the afternoon/evening.
The destabilizing warm sector with warming temperatures and mid-upper 60s dewpoints, will support MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg, and strengthening vertical shear will be favorable for a broken band of supercells capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this afternoon/evening across LA/AR. Farther east, the most dangerous part of the severe weather outbreak is expected to evolve today into tonight from central MS into central AL.
Here, there will be the potential for scattered supercell development in the open warm sector by midday, in an environment with MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear near 50 kt, and effective SRH near 200 m2/s2. All hazards will be possible with these warm sector storms during the afternoon. By late afternoon and into early tonight, a low-level jet segment will strengthen to 50-60 kt across MS/AL and the midlevel trough approaches from the west, contributing to very strong low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 400-500 m2/s2).
Buoyancy will be slow to decrease after sunset and with eastward extent based on the prevalence of upper 60s dewpoints, while very favorable wind profiles will maintain the threat for long-track, intense tornadoes with both warm sector supercells, as well as supercells within the broken band along and ahead of the surface wind shift progressing eastward across MS by early tonight.
West central GA appears to be the eastern edge of the primary severe threat area through tonight.
COURTESY: spc.noaa.gov
A county-by-county breakdown
Not much has changed here. For south Mississippi it look sliek the prime time for severe weather will be between 1p and 5p. There will be another round as a broken line of storms passes through the area between 5p and 11p, but those storms shouldn’t be quite as potent.
And it is important to remember that everyone won’t see the worst of the weather. Everyone will see some heavy rain, gusty wind (up to 40mph), and lightning. But not everyone will see a strong tornado.
Northern counties
Simpson County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength)
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line may make it through by 8pm
Smith County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength)
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line should be through by 9pm
Jasper County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength)
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line should be through this area by 10pm
Clarke County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength)
5pm-11pm – Isolated severe storms may persist through 7pm here. After that point, this is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line should be through this area by 11pm
The Highway 84 Corridor
Lawrence County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength)
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 9pm.
Jeff Davis County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength)
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 9pm.
Covington County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength)
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 10pm.
Jones County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength)
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 10pm.
Wayne County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength)
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 11pm.
The Highway 98 Corridor
Walthall County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado.
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 9pm.
Marion County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado.
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 10pm.
Lamar County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado.
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 10pm.
Forrest County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado.
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 10pm.
Perry County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado.
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 11pm.
Greene County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado.
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 11pm.
The Highway 26 Corridor
Pearl River County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado.
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 10pm.
Stone County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado.
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 11pm.
George County
11am-5pm – Isolated severe storms possible during this time. Storms may not be widespread, but they could be potent. The main concern with storms during this time is heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of tennis balls, and the potential for a tornado.
5pm-11pm – This is when a broken line of storms passes through the area bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and the potential for tornadoes. The line of storms should pass through here by 11pm.
Updraft Helicity streaks
A lot of you that have been following these updates over the years (seven! holy moly!) have learned that the Updraft Helicity streaks within the model guidance can do a good job to help highlight where the most potent storms may be. This isn’t a perfect estimate, but it is a good first look at what may occur and a good “ballpark” for overall coverage.
You can see how closely the HRRR and HRW model guidance mirrors each other. This gives us a good ‘ballpark’ that the threat for some of the strongest storms within the entire system has shifted a bit to the southeast within the modeling.
That means that parts of south Mississippi may be “in play” for some of the strongest storms for today. So it is important to keep an eye to the sky and a NOAA Weather Radio nearby.
And while the overall threat for the strongest storms has shifted southeast within the entire system, the thret in south Mississippi may actually have shifted back to the northwest.
In this situation, I really want to remind everyone that “Strongest storms” does not equal “strong tornadoes.” Because today we are also expecting the strongest storms to be hail producers. So the strongest storms may actually produce up to tennis ball size hail. Or they may produce up to 70mph wind.
If you live within the orange – and particularly the red – I would really encourage you to keep extra tabs on the weather during the day afternoon and evening. This doesn’t mean if you live outside of these areas you can let your guard down, but it means that if you are inside of these areas, you should pay a bit more attention to Mother Nature.
“But Nick, that is almost, like, the ENTIRE area!”
I know. It is one of those days.
The Bottom Line
Showers storms and the potential for severe weather will last through about midnight tonight.
This doesn’t mean it will be storming all day long. There may be times during the day when it is actually “nice” outside. But, there may also be times when it is raining sideways, lightning is flashing and hail is pummeling your rooftop.
For now, just make sure you have your NOAA Weather radio setup with fresh batteries. Make sure it is set to the right channel and, if capable, that it is set to alert you when a warning is issued for your county. Also, download a weather app to your phone that will ping you when a warning is issued for your area. Having multiple ways to receive a warning is like setting two alarms to make sure you actually get up in the morning! Redundancy is key!
