The Storms Prediction Center is already working this morning on informing people of the severe weather threat for today.
As it looks right now, thunderstorms are set to initiate from Iowa to Missouri and press east into Illinois by early afternoon. Storms will become organized with daytime heating and the interaction with several key atmospheric conditions. The main concern right now is that these cells will have a tendency to stay as discrete, long-lived supercells capable of producing tornadoes, hail and damaging winds.
Per the SPC:
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SWRN-NERN MO INTO SERN IA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE…RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF REFLECTIVITY EXTENDING FROM SWRN IA INTO NWRN MO /INVOF KANSAS CITY MO/…WITH THIS LIKELY INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ADVANCING EWD INTO THIS REGION. STORMS…MAINLY ELEVATED…ARE ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA ALONG AND N OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SWRN-NERN IA.
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALREADY PRESENT OVER MO/IL /E.G. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT/ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWD FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO NRN/CENTRAL MO AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
If you live in the outlined area be prepared for conditions to deteriorate rapidly this afternoon if you are in the path of one of these storms.
