The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion suggesting there is a 95% chance the are will be put under a Watch – Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm, there isn’t any indication at this point.
From the SPC:
Surface analysis shows a weak east-west oriented boundary from TX into AL, with MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg along and south of it. Meanwhile, 50-60 kt deep-layer shear exists along the length of the boundary, where neutral height tendencies are forecast ahead of the upper low over west TX. Given zonal flow aloft, temperatures in the mid levels remain cool, supporting MUCAPE values despite marginal boundary-layer temperatures.
Southerly winds just off the surface are forecast to increase tonight, with at least 30 kts out of the south at 850 mb. This will aid lift as well as moisture advection, and the result should be numerous strong to severe storms through morning. Long hodographs should favor storm tilt, with bows possible along and just north of the surface boundary. Effective SRH will be sufficient for rotating storms near the boundary, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. In addition, large hail will be possible.
The Watch is likely to be issued in the coming hours and will be in place through the morning hours and may even be extended into the afternoon depending on the environment and how things shake out.
It is worth noting that storm development has been trailing model guidance for the last few hours. A lot of the models suggested storms would be developing across parts of south Mississippi and Louisiana around 1am and so far it has been mainly light rain only.
Meanwhile, in central Mississippi there are storms on-going while model guidance shows those storms do not exist.
It will be interesting to watch the model trends through the morning. If they continue to over-represent storm coverage in certain areas while dismissing storm coverage in others.
