The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch through 10a for the areas highlighted below.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama, Southeast Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and the Coastal Waters. This is in effect from 355 AM until 1000 AM CDT. The primary threats include…
— A couple intense tornadoes possible
— Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Here is a look at the radar as of 3:45a:
Forecast Update
The SPC is currently monitoring the areas along and ahead of this batch of storms for the potential for severe weather. But there are some limitations to the potential – the big one being if storms are surface-based or not. The farther north you go, the less likely that is occurring. Closer to the coast, though, that becomes more likely.
The secondary warm front is still trying to lift northward. But it is currently closer to the coast along the Mississippi and Alabama waters.
By 10a the warm front should push inland, leaving everywhere within about 70 miles of the waters behind it, and capable of producing surface-based storms. And thus increasing the tornado threat. That is why the Tornado Watch lasts until 10a for this area.
However, it is also important to note that model guidance shows that the strongest storms and those storms with the most mid-level rotation occur north of that warm front. Meaning that those storms are less likely to be surface-based and thus should have a lower tornado threat. And a higher hail threat.
So, Nick, does this mean we are in the clear? Then why a Tornado Watch?!??
No, you are not in the clear. The Tornado Watch is in effect because model guidance is just that, guidance. It isn’t a guarantee. And the atmosphere is pretty ripe this morning, it is just baaaaarrrreeelllyyyy not ripe enough for a true tornado threat right now.
But if the warm front moves faster, the cold front moves slower, or any number of other things don’t happen at the same pace as shown in the model guidance, that throws a big wrench into whether or not the model is accurate.
Thanks a lot, Nick, way to get our hopes up!!
The reality is this is, and always has been, a very conditional forecast. If the warm front is faster, the threat for tornadoes goes up. If it is slower, the threat for tornadoes goes down. But our models are not great as tracking and predicting the speed of coastal warm fronts. So we have to over-prepare everyone in case things shake out in a non-favorable way.
That includes the potential for tornadoes.
You can almost think of this of a low-probability high impact event. For example, if I told you there was a two-percent chance you will get hit by a bus today while walking down the road, you may change your plans. Perhaps that walk to the coffee shop would turn into a drive. And your head would be on a wivel always onthe lookout for busses.
Same thing here.
This is a Tornado Watch to alert you of a potential that will hopefully make you change plans and be more aware of your surroundings. It doesn’t guarantee tornadoes or promise that the weather will be terribly intense. Just a heads up that, “Hey! Tornadoes are possible and they are dangerous. Change your plans accordingly.”
