The SPC has increased the risk for severe weather tomorrow to a Moderate Risk. That is a four our of five, where five is the highest risk.
For Mississippi:
For the LaMissBama region:
From the SPC:
…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG…ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.…SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL…
A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE
PERIOD. A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION
FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH
THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS INLAND…A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
BANDS. WITH TIME…DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE
SRH 300-500+ M2 PER S2/. DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS…VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS –ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES– AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.
The Storm Prediction Center meteorologists will continue to monitor this situation.
