Our stretch of nice weather continues. Yesterday was about as perfect a Winter day as you could ask for. While I’m not in Hattiesburg, I am close by working ‘on assignment’ and man was it nice!
It looks like we are in for more of the same today.
The difference today is there might be a bit wind today. South winds will be cruising at up to 15mph this afternoon. It may be almost breezy for a bit, so that may limit how warm it feels this afternoon as highs peak around 65.
Our next chance for “weather” arrives on Saturday night as a front swings through the area. This will increase the cloud cover through the day on Saturday (the wind may pick up again, too) and through Sunday morning as we may be able to squeeze out a few showers overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning.
Taking a quick look at a few maps from the GFS computer weather model, you can see there is some indication that precip will be possible.
At 850mb (about 4000ft) there will be moisture (image on the left) and up around 700mb (about 9,000ft) the air will be moving vertically (image on the right).
From that we can assume….
1. 99% humidity is a good indicator the air is near saturation
2. As the air above that lifts, it will allow the moist air to rise as the air is warmer and more buoyant)
3. As that air rises it will cool and condense forming clouds
4. Since this is occurring near a frontal boundary there will be at least some forcing to air in ascent
5. Precipitation is possible
That is Meteorology 101 right there! We have some warmer air with moisture in it, we are going to lift it up higher, it’ll make clouds and if we do that enough it may precipitate.
It is one of the reasons I’ve been a bit perplexed at the forecasts from the NWS (and others) for the region lately that keeps things 100-percent dry.
I don’t say this to be rude, as I’m legitimately curious, what are they seeing? Because if you have a front and you have moisture, you at least have a chance – perhaps not a good one, but a chance – for precipitation. So, perhaps I’m missing something here. But, I am not sure what.
I know the next question is, “Snow, Nick?”
I can’t say a hard “No” but I also am nowhere close to a “Yes” or even a “maybe” right now. I would say the available data and analysis would suggest, “Probably not snow, but if you do see snow, go buy a lottery ticket.. youre lucky!”
While we will have some Omega in the Dendritic Growth Zone, it will likely be too dry up there to build any snowflakes. But a little close to the surface, and right above the 850mb line, we will have some omega and a saturated atmosphere. So we will be able to make precipitation there, but it won’t be snowflakes.
On top of that, data show that temperatures will be well-above freezing up there (and at the ground) so anything that falls would most likely be liquid. And pretty light.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Thursday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Friday
Sunny. Highs around 70.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Saturday
Increasing clouds through the day, can’t rule out a passing patch of drizzle in the evening. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance for rain around 10-percent
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with some precip possible. Drizzle may mix with small snowflakes closer to I-20. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance for any precip around 10-percent.
Sunday
Morning clouds clear out for afternoon sunshine. Cooler. Highs around 50.
Sunday Night
Clear. Lows around 30.
Monday
Sunny, warmer. Highs in the lower 60s.
Monday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
