Another chilly start this morning with many temps around the freezing mark or slightly above it. Some folks may have some frost again, others may just need an extra jacket.
Things will be nice again today and tomorrow. Clouds will start to thicken up a bit on Saturday and into Sunday morning as the next system glides through the area. For the moment there does look to be a chance for rain, but like I’ve been saying the last few days, it’s not a great chance.
The computer weather models are a bit mor split this morning on the chance for precip. The GFS continues to show some passing light rain through the region late Saturday and into Sunday morning while the ECMWF shows the rain ending just to the NW across Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
This is highlighted even better by the Skew-T data for the region.
It doesn’t take a meteorologist to realize that the two Skew-T charts above are different. One, the GFS shows a chance for precip while the other, the ECMWF, shows a mostly dry atmosphere.
Which model is right? Neither. It’s usually somewhere in the middle. Which leaves us with a slight chance for some showers on Saturday still.
Then our attention turns to the next system next week which may offer the chance for some storms and severe weather.
Right now the CIPS Analogs shows a 10- to 15-percent chance for severe weather across the region by next thursday evening.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Sunny. Highs around 70.
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Friday
Sunny. Highs around 70.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Saturday
Increasing clouds. Some drizzle possible in the evening. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance for rain around 10-percent.
Saturday Night
Passing clouds overnight with a few areas of drizzle. Some drizzle may mix with small snowflakes closer to I-20. Colder. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance for precip around 10-percent.
Sunday
Sunny, cooler. Highs in the lower 50s.
Sunday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Monday
Sunny, warmer. Highs in the lower 60s.
Monday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 30s.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Wednesday
A 20 percent chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Highs around 70.
