Still warm, eyes on tropics: Southern MS/AL/LA Weather Forecast – 9/20/22

More sun and more warmth for the area as we move through the second half of September. With astronomical Fall starting in a few days, one might hope it would actually feel like fall. But hey, since when does Mother Nature make sense?

Right now, ridging is in control across the southern US. We have one system that is going to clip the Northeast and then another that is developing out west.

As that next system opens up into the Plains, it will squash the ridge and shove it back to the southwest. The wider trough it will be embedded within will also do a good job to shove the Bermuda High a bit farther back out to sea, too. So it will leave a wide area of troughiness across the eastern 2/3rds of the country.

That sets us up in an interesting position relative to what may develop in the Caribbean in teh coming few days. As this would leave an escape route north through the Gulf of Mexico.

So far, the NHC shows a “medium” chance of development during the next five days.

It is more likely that the chance of development is heavily weighted toward Day 4 and Day 5. And the NHC will likely tag this as an Invest later today and start running all of their special hurricane-specific model guidance on it.

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DAY TO DAY FORECAST

Today
Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.

Tonight
Clear. Lows in the lower 70s.

Wednesday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 90s.

Wednesday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 70s.

Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 90s.

Thursday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 70s.

Friday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.

Friday Night
Clear. Lows in the upper 60s.

Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.

Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 70.

Sunday
Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.

Monday
Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.