No big changes to the forecast this afternoon. We are generally dry and will be through tomorrow. By Wednesday we will see our next shot for rain develop.
I suppose the biggest change with the model guidance data today is the addition of some of the remnants of Rafael getting pulled north as the next front passes by.
If this holds, we may see some extra ‘umph’ from some of the showers and storms. That means heavier rain at times. Won’t likely have a big impact on the potential for severe weather.
And peaking of that, it looks like a pretty low-end risk. The Skew-T from the ECMWF model guidance shows a pretty shallow EIL with some turning with height, but not a ton of low-level instability.
If we were to see severe weather it would likely be brief wind gusts up over 60mph and the potential for a brief tornado in spots where the broken line of storms kinks or curves a bit.
The timeline on this looks to be between about 4p Wednesday afternoon and 10p Wednesday night – depending on your location. It looks like storms will be moving from west to east, so it’ll start earlier toward I-55 and start later toward I-65. And where it starts earlier, it will also end earlier and vice-versa.
Beyond that, things dry back out and we play the waiting game for our next shot for rain which looks to show up in the middle of next week.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Near steady temperature in the upper 60s. East winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night: Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Near steady temperature in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Cooler with lows in the lower 50s.
Friday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 50.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
