Things are about to get interesting! We have a cold front pushing through tonight followed by some colder and drizzly days ahead. With the added bonus of a chance for some sleet or freezing rain overnight Thursday and into Friday morning
I’m not going to dive too deep into things this morning, but do know that if you live south of Highway 98, you probably have the better chance for seeing any kind of ice accumulations than north of highway 98.
That said, the actual risk for ice accumulations is generally low at this point. But, with ice, the forecast is often very tricky. The difference between sleet and no sleet could be a mile or two. And the difference between accu,ulating ice could be the bottom of a hill vs the top of a hill.
Last night I posted the Uncertainty Cube Game of Science. And I don’t think we have moved much, honestly. Even the new model data is still a bit of hit-or-miss scenario.
There may even be a shot for a few snowflakes to mix in witht eh rain in a few spots, too. Not very likely, but I don’t think it can be ruled out, either.
The reason a few flakes may mix in is that the lower levels may end up warmer than freezing, but also dry. This means as snowflakes being made above that point int he atmosphere will melt and evaporate as they fall into that region. As they evaporate, they cool the air down.
And the air can cool back to close to the freezing mark.
Allowing snowflakes – if there are enough of them – to traverse that region of the atmosphere without fully melting.
When should I expect what, Nick?
Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, expect the drizzle and light rain to continue to pass through. Not a lot of rain is going to fall. This will be enough to keep the pavement wet, and that’s about it. And the rain will be on and off, so it won’t be raining all night long
At times, overnight, not the whole time, but in the heavier showers, sleet may mix in with the rain. You’ll hear little ping sounds on the roof. And in some of the heaviest showers, snowflakes may mix in with the sleet and rain, too.
The best chance for this is between 3a and 7a Friday morning.
During that time temperatures will be cooling back down to near or even below-freezing. This is when things could get a bit messy in terms of ice accumulations.
Travel impacts should remain pretty minimal based on the latest guidance. Because not all palces are going to be below freezing while precipitation is falling. The toughest spots will be bridges and overpasses, shaded country roads, and low-lying areas. This is going to be the first places that ice starts to accumulate.
And keep in mind, not everyone will see sleet, snow, or ice accumulations. Most folks will see just regular cold rain.
By Friday, late morning, temperatures will be back above freezing and things will start to melt. It’ll still feel cold, don’t get me wrong. But it will be above freezing everywhere.
Day to day forecast
Today
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon.. Highs in the lower 70s.
Tonight
Cloudy with showers and storms likely. A few storms may feature very heavy rain and gusty wind. Severe weather is less likely. Lows in the lower 50s. The chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday
Cloudy, cooler. Drizzle and light rain possible. Breezy. Highs in the lower 50s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. The chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday Night
Cloudy. Much colder. Light drizzle, sleet, and freezing rain possible overnight. Accumulations more likely to the South. Lows in the lower 30s. The chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Friday
Cloudy with lingering drizzle and slet possible in the morning. Highs in the upper 30s. The chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Warmer. Highs in the upper 40s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Monday
Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of light rain. Lows in the upper 30s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of light rain. Highs in the upper 50s.
