Whether or not you see any storms, it will be breezy.
Sure, we still have a chance for a few showers today and tonight and then storms as we head through the early morning hours tomorrow morning. While not every spot will see a storm, everyone will see the wind.
For the storm potential, I bet I can post just two graphics and most of you guys would probably know what to expect.
The numbers have come down a little on the Karrie Meter. Recall yesterday we were at a 4.13 and this morning we are at a 3.39. So not a “big” change, but I think it is a meaningful one. But the “TOR LEAN” number has come waaaayyyyy down.
And I had a hunch it was going to change. I just didn’t know it would change this much.
The thing that is benefiting the region the most is the timing. Storms look to roll through around sunrise, whent eh atmosphere is, generally, most stable.
Looking at the data this morning, it looks like we may hold on to a pretty decent cap of warm air aloft as the front rolls through. So storms will likely have a tough time getting going because of that. And where storms are able to break through the cap, there won’t be much room for instability above that, so they will likely struggle to really get moving.
And the shear is going to be quite high, so any updrafts that try to get established are going to have a really tough time staying upright. A bit like I talked about yesterday, these storms will be drunk on shear.
Because of the cap of warm air, we won’t likely see too many storms ahead of the cold front, either. That means the forecast from yesterday (or the day before, I honestly forget when I mentioned this), the storms will swing through in one quick burst with the front. The only reason the timeline for storms is so wide is to capture the variability in timing, not the duration of storminess.
WHO SEES WHAT DURING THE STORMS?
EVERYONE — Breezy conditions, brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 35mph
SOME AREAS — Breezy conditions, brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 45mph
FEW PEOPLE — Breezy conditions, one extended round of Heavy rain, brief localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, small hail
VERY FEW SPOTS — Breezy conditions, very heavy rain, brief localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, the chance for a tornado (up to EF-3 in strength)
Once the front does pass, it will still be a bit breezy, but the weather should get back to being mostly sunny by afternoon. Then the weekend looks great.
REGIONAL DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST
Today
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy with storms by early Friday morning. Breezy with lows in the upper 60s. South winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph, increasing to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday
Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then sunny in the afternoon. Breezy and less humid with highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph, decreasing to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday Night
Clear. Much cooler with lows in the lower 50s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds around 5 mph.
Saturday Night
Clear. Lows around 50.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Monday
Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the mid 60s.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Wednesday
Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
