No major changes overnight, but some slight nudges here and there. You may recall last night me pointing up to Iowa during my video on facebook talking about if things were “under-performing” or “overperforming” as a good measuring stick. And so far it is running mostly on schedule
I can tell you from experience that the front came through Houston with quite the punch of wind. Woke me up, even! So, I still expect things to be rather breezy after the rain rolls through at the very least.
Speaking of the rain rolling through…. The SPC did inch the Marginal Risk back to the west and a bit to the north. This was something I talked about last night. This is all about where that Warm Front is going to set up. It looks like it’ll still be close to the coast, but that does allow for some places along the coast, and barely inland an opportunity for some heavier rain, gustier wind, and the potential for a very brief and very weak tornado.
Looking at some of the model guidance for the rainfall, though, much of it looks elevated across the area, with no big threat for severe weather
The series above, 11a today,2p today, and 5 p today from the HRRR computer weather model don’t show anything overly robust. And by 8p, most everything is starting to wind down.
Once the rain rolls through, there will be a lull in the action overnight and into early Sunday morning. Then Sunday, before sunrise, that is when the chance for a rain/snow mix, snow showers, and snow flurries will glide through.
As you can see, there won’t be much to the “snow” chances. While there may be flakes in the air, most spots are not likely to end up with any meaningful accumulations. One inch here, a half-inch there. Someone folks may get lucky and end up with snow that piles up to two inches in very localized spots. But most of the snow that folks see today will be melting on contact.
But hey, for you Snow Lovers, this is better than nothing. But I’m certain many folks will be disappointed that this isn’t going to look like December of 2017.
And the best news is that with the warm ground, slower precipitation rates, and the cold, dry wind, it is unlikely that this will impact roads much at all along or south of I-20.
It will just be a novelty item.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible. Severe storms can’t be ruled out close to the coast, elsewhere just rain and thunder. Highs in the lower 60s. The chance of rain 80-percent.
Tonight
Cloudy with rain ending by midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15mph, gusting to 25mph. The chance of precipitation 30-percent.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a wintry mix possible before 9a. Much colder. Highs around 40. West winds 10 to 20mph, gusting to 30mph
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Martin Luther King Jr Day
Sunny, warmer. Highs in the mid 50s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Warmer. Lows in the lower 40s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy with passing showers and storms. Warmer. Highs in the lower 70s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a few storms possible overnight. Lows in the lower 40s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy. Cooler. Highs in the upper 50s.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. Colder. Lows in the lower 30s.
Friday
Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.
County-by-County Breakdown
I made a few minor adjustments here, mainly on timeline. A reminder that “up to” a certain amount of snow also include “zero” and know that “zero” sticking snow is still the most likely outcome from this event.
Louisiana
St. Helena Parish
Timeline: Sat Now – 6p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Tangipahoa Parish
Timeline: Sat Now – 6p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Washington Parish
Timeline: Sat 9a – 6p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Livingston Parish
Timeline: Sat 9a – 7p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
St. Tammany Parish
Timeline: Sat 9a – 7p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: No accumulations expected
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Mississippi
NEAR I-20
Copiah County
Rain Timeline: Sat Now – 7p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Up to 1″ possible, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 1a – 9a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Simpson County
Rain Timeline: Sat 9a – 7p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Up to 1″ possible, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 1a – 9a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Smith County
Rain Timeline: Sat 10a – 8p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Up to 1/2″ possible, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 11a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Jasper County
Rain Timeline: Sat 10a – 8p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Up to 1/2″ possible, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 11a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Clarke County
Rain Timeline: Sat 11a – 9p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Up to 1/2″ possible, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 11a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
Lincoln County
Rain Timeline: Sat Now – 7p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Up to 1/2″ possible, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 2a – 7a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Lawrence County
Rain Timeline: Sat 9a – 7p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Up to 1/2″ possible, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 2a – 8a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Jeff Davis County
Rain Timeline: Sat 10a – 7p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Up to 1/4″ possible, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 8a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Covington County
Rain Timeline: Sat 10a – 8p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Up to 1/4″ possible, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 8a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Jones County
Rain Timeline: Sat 10a – 8p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, small hail, gusty wind
Snow: Less than 1/4″ most places, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 8a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Wayne County
Rain Timeline: Sat 11a – 9p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, small hail, gusty wind
Snow: Less than 1/4″ most places, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 8a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR
Pike County
Rain Timeline: Sat 9a – 6p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Accumulations unlikely
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 8a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Walthall County
Rain Timeline: Sat 9a – 6p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Accumulations unlikely
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 8a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Marion County
Rain Timeline: Sat 10a – 7p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Accumulations unlikely
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 9a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Lamar County
Rain Timeline: Sat 10a – 8p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Accumulations unlikely
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 9a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Forrest County
Rain Timeline: Sat 11a – 8p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Accumulations unlikely
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 9a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Perry County
Rain Timeline: Sat 10a – 7p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Accumulations unlikely
Snow Timeline: Sun 4a – 9a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Upper 30s
Greene County
Rain Timeline: Sat 10a – 7p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, small hail, gusty wind
Snow: Accumulations unlikely
Snow Timeline: Sun 4a – 9a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Upper 30s
HIGHWAY 26 CORRIDOR
Pearl River County
Rain Timeline: Sat 10a – 6p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Upper 30s
Stone County
Rain Timeline: Sat 11a – 8p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind, and a brief tornado can’t be ruled out
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Upper 30s
George County
Rain Timeline: Sat 12p – 9p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind, and a brief tornado can’t be ruled out
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Upper 30s
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
Jackson County
Rain Timeline: Sat 12p – 9p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind, and a brief tornado can’t be ruled out
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Upper 30s
Harrison County
Rain Timeline: Sat 12p – 9p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind, and a brief tornado can’t be ruled out
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Upper 30s
Hancock County
Rain Timeline: Sat 12p – 9p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind, and a brief tornado can’t be ruled out
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Upper 30s
Alabama
Sumter County
Rain Timeline: Sat 1p – 10p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, small hail, gusty wind
Snow: Less than 1/4″ most places, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 8a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Choctaw County
Rain Timeline: Sat 1p – 10p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, small hail, gusty wind
Snow: Less than 1/4″ most places, melted by midday
Snow Timeline: Sun 3a – 8a
Coldest Temps Sunday: Mid 30s
Washington County
Rain Timeline: Sat 1p – 11p
Threats: Heavy rain, thunder, gusty wind
Snow: Unlikely
Coldest Temps Sunday: Upper30s
