Quite the cool weather setup this morning! Some folks near Jackson are waking up in the 40s while others down along the coast are close to 70.
Some showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and evening, the SPC yesterday introduced a Marginal Risk for severe weather for the area, but this morning removed it.
It looks like storms are possible and severe weather can’t be completely ruled out, but any threat for a severe storms is going to be very isolated and require the right ingredients to develop in just the right amount at just the right time under just the right storm.
In short: not impossible, but unlikely.
Though, storms are possible, the latest HRRR model guidance is showing a round of surface-based storms set to move across the area later this afternoon.
And that is a bit of a change from what models were showing 12 and 24 hours ago, where any storms that developed today were shown to be elevated, and not surface-based.
But the environment won’t be incredibly supportive.
The most interesting part of this, is that if a storm can get through capping, it will have a pretty reasonable low-level atmosphere to produce some pretty gusty wind and a you-can’t-rule-it-out chance for a brief (very brief) tornado.
But again, while possible, it certainly isn’t “likely” at all.
The most likely outcome is a handful of showers and ‘regular mississippi storms’ will move through the area.
And then the wind flips around and we start cooling things down and the weather calms down (with a few showers still possible) into the weekend
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Areas of fog in the morning. A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs around 80. South winds 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the lower 50s. South winds 10 to 15 mph becoming west 5 to 10 mph after midnight. The chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday
Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Much cooler. Highs in the upper 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. North winds around 5 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
A 20 percent chance of light rain after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
Sunday
A 40 percent chance of light rain. Cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 40.
Monday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 70s.
