The sun may try to sneak back out today as the rain exits. And high pressure will build into the area tomorrow. That will help to clear things out and keep the area seasonably cool for Monday and Tuesday.
That seasonably cool air is going to be part of the wrench that gets thrown into the forecast for Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Right now the Storm Prediction Center has the area pegged with a potential for severe weather, but it isn’t very cut-and-dry.
On reason is the seasonably cool air that builds into the area on Monday and Tuesday. It may under-cut the warmer Gulf of Mexico air that wants to push into the area ahead of the next system. That would limit the potential for surface-based severe weather (tornadoes) but allow for the elevated storms to still produce potentially severe weather (wind & hail).
As an example, here is a look at the Skew-T from the NAM model for just after midnight on Wednesday morning. With the help of The Simpsons, you can see Bart and Lisa feel pretty “Meh” about the temperature profile while Homer is, understandably, frightened by the hodograph.
And in order for surface-based severe weather to exist (again, tornadoes), we would need all of them to see something scary. And they don’t.
However, a bit like the last event, the model guidance may be struggling to identify just how warm the push of air will be from the Gulf. And it may be over-doing the cooler air in place.
So it is a bit of a push-and-pull between the model guidance and the air masses. Which is why the forecast isn’t cut-and-dry.
So far, the forecast suggests that showers and storms will pass through between about 11p on Tuesday night and about 7a on Wednesday morning. Storms are likely. Severe weather is possible, but at this point I don’t think severe weather is “likely.”
The main concerns, at this point, are brie heavy rain, localized flash flooding, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a few brief tornadoes.
Once this kicks out of here on Wednesday morning, things will cool down for a few days before the next shot for storms arrives next weekend again.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Mostly cloudy this morning. Some drizzle. Some patchy fog. Highs around 60. West winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy. Cooler with lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Wind chill values around 30 in some spots.
Monday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Increasing clouds with a few showers and storms possible. Breezy. Highs in the mid 60s. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy with storms likely overnight. Windy. Lows in the upper 40s. South wind at 15 to 30mph with gusts up to 45mph. Chance of rain around 80 percent.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Still breezy. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Cooler with lows in the upper 30s.
Thursday
Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 30s.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
