It looks like my “calmer weather this week, even with some rain” talk made it back to Mother Nature, and she is cranky that I tried to give everyone a week off from severe weather.
The CIPS Analogs is now showing the potential for some severe weather in the region Thursday.
Before you get too worried, I have some good news.
First…. This is definitely not a slam dunk event. This is a Pacific-born system so the punch of cold behind it and the amount of torque it will provide tot eh atmosphere are not quite as robust as other storm systems.
Second…. The ‘meat and taters’ of the storm are likely to be farther east into central and eastern Alabama as opposed to Louisiana and Mississippi.
Third…. despite the CIPS showing a reasonable shot for severe weather, when you look under the hood at some of the other data that supports that prognostication, it leaves a lower confidence level in widespread severe weather ever actually materializing.
Yes, the analog map for the operational guidance looks a bit concerning.
But looking what actually occurred during those Top 15 events that give us the map above, shows a few high impact days and a lot of Nothing Burgers.
So, while, yes, there is a chance, the chance is certainly not very high. And while yes the data supports some higher end events, the data also supports – with more evidence – no severe weather.
For the moments, it is worth watching, but certainly not anything to lose sleep over.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Monday
Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph, becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the upper 40s. South winds around 5 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Storms possible overnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday
Cloudy with storms possible. Some severe. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Much cooler with lows in the lower 40s.
Friday
Sunny. Much cooler with highs in the mid 50s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Thanks for your information and responses.