Just a brief forecast this morning. The SPC has increased the severe risk for north of I-20 to a Moderate Risk in some sections of the Mississippi River Valley.
While the risk continues to increase to the north, the main concern south of I-20 continues to be brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, small hail and a few tornadoes possible (perhaps one or two strong tornadoes).
The ‘ceiling’ for the potential bad weather isn’t really much different on either side of I-20, but the likelihood of dealing with storms capable of reaching the ‘ceiling’ is a bit higher the farther north you travel.
Right now, in terms of timing, there may be two rounds (depending on which model you use) with one Tuesday afternoon and another overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.
Details will continue to shake out in the coming hours. Including some more resolution on how the UH Streaks will shake out in the model guidance.
So far, things remain pretty isolated in nature.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. Highs around 70.
Tonight
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Tuesday
Partly sunny with storms possible in the afternoon and evening. Some severe. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy with storms possible. Some severe. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with storms in the morning. Highs in the lower 70s. Temperature falling into the lower 60s in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Much cooler with lows in the mid 30s.
Thursday
Sunny. Much cooler with highs in the upper 50s.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Not as cool with highs in the upper 60s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the lower 50s.
Saturday
Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
