You my notice a bit of a breeze this morning and through the day. That wind is ushering in warm, subtropical moisture ahead of a cold front that will be swinging through tomorrow.
The front will offer a chance for showers, storms and severe weather. The SPC is still highlighting the region with a Marginal and Slight Risk.
As of now, it still looks like the bulk of the worst of the weather will be to the north of the Southern MS/AL/LA region, but we will have a chance to see a few severe storms press through the area during the day on Thursday.
The Karrie Meter is still hanging in the mid 3s.
Looking at some of the model data, this continues to look like a bit of a ‘boom or bust’ day with instability really driving the ship.
That means if we get enough low-level instability, there will be a better chance for storms and if we dont there wont be as many storms nor as high a risk for severe weather.
Looking at the updraft Helicity Streaks, the maps tell the story quite nicely. The first map (left) shows lower instability and thus not as many streaks of rotating storms. While the second map (right) shows a scenario where instability is a bit higher and there are more streaks across the region.
I think the same forecast still – mostly – holds from yesterday.
Timeline & Threats
Here is a first look at the timeline and threats. This will likely change a bit during the next 48 hours, but hopefully will give everyone a good idea about when to be most cautious with the weather.
7a-10a — Instability showers will be widespread with a few storms across parts of southeast Louisiana. Severe weather is less likely during this time period, but not impossible. Main concerns with storms during this time period will be…
– Heavy rain
– Lightning
– Gusty wind
10a-1p — Showers and storms, some severe, move across southeastern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi. Main threats with storms during this time will be…
– Very heavy rain
– Brief localized flash flooding
– Frequent lightning
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Hail up to the size of quarters
– Tornadoes (up to EF-3 in strength)
1p-4p — Storms ending for Louisiana and parts of southern Mississippi while eastern counties of southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama still deal with storms. Some severe. Main threats with storms during this time will be…
– Very heavy rain
– Localized flash flooding
– Frequent lightning
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Hail up to the size of quarters
– Tornadoes (up to EF-3 in strength)
4p-7p — Storms moving out of the area. Some lingering storms across parts of Alabama. Main concerns with storms during this time period will be…
– Heavy rain
– Frequent lightning
– Gusty wind
– Small hail
It still looks like 0.5″ to 2.0″ of rain is the best best across the region in terms of rainfall totals, but I’d bet that a few spots will have a chance to see up to 4″ of rain where some of stronger storms end up moving.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy with a few showers possible. Highs in the lower 70s. The chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible after midnight. Warmer. Breezy. Temperatures nearly steady in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. The chance of rain 40 percent.
Thursday
Cloudy with a chance for showers and storms. Some storms may be severe. Breezy. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to near 35 mph. The chance of rain nearly 100 percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the lower 40s.
Friday
Partly cloudy. Much cooler. Highs in the mid 50s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Warmer. Lows in the upper 40s.
Washington’s Birthday
Mostly cloudy with chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. Warmer. Lows in the lower 60s.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with a chance for storms. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance for rain around 30-percent.
Thanks so much for continuing this blog in your spare time. I live in Laurel, MS and always felt comfortable when you came on the air at WDAM during severe weather.