We may have a bit more of a risk for severe weather and storms today than we were thinking 24 horus ago, but it still doesn’t look like any kind of severe weahter outbreak, nor do I think everyone in the area will even see some rain.
But between about 4p and 10p there will be showers and storms that kick through the area.
The HRRR model’s estimated radar data is above and it shows a thin line of storms kicking through the area. The background near-storm environment as these storms kick through will be favorable for brief heavy rain, gusty wind and small hail. It looks pretty borderline for tornadoes, but given the time of year, I don’t think we can rule it out.
Two big pluses for the tornado risk would be the EIL is surface-based as the downdraft CAPE is above 800 (a local threshold to need to exceed). But I will say the wind is pretty unidirectional, so that is a big minus.
It will have to be the right place at the right time to get one on a day like today.
Otherwise, the rain and storms will kick through this evening – leaving some folks dry – and then things look good through the rest of the week.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Cooler with lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday
Sunny. Much cooler. Less humid with highs around 70. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear, cooler with lows in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.ThursdaySunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear. Lows around 40.
Friday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Monday
Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s.
