We are still looking at the chance for severe weather today. While I think the models are doing an okay job at prepping us for what may happen, I will note that the models this morning are running about two hours behind what is actually happening.
For instance, they show the front moving through Houston at 7am. And, as of this write-up at 430am, it is already knocking on my door north of town. I’ve had a good burst of rain and the northerly wind isn’t too far away.
That doesn’t mean it will show up early in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. But it does mean that the outcomes some of the model guidance project may be limited in their accuracy due to the timing difference.
What are those things? That is anyone’s guess. Instead, we just need to park that in the back of our mind while we look over the data and know that there is higher-than-normal uncertainty with this round of storms. They could be not as bad, or they could be worse. We just don’t know what this difference in timing may mean.
As it stands, the timeline for storms is mostly unchanged since last night. The Karrie Meter is also unchanged. Some of the early morning data (data I ignored given the problem with the frontal timing) would suggest a slightly lower number for the Karrie Meter, but a slightly higher number for the “TOR Lean” so I’ll continue to monitor trends and if things change in a meaningful way I may need to make changes to the numbers.
Given the timeline and the Karrie Meter, here is a look at the time and area of greatest concern:
A reminder that just because there is severe weather possible, doesn’t mean that everyone will get severe weather all the time. Here is a look at how I think it shakes out:
During the highlighted times above, expect to deal with…
EVERYONE — Storms, brief heavy rain, lightning, and wind gusts up to 40mph
MOST PLACES — Storms, brief heavy rain, lightning, and wind gusts up to 45mph
MANY SPOTS — Storms, Heavy rain, brief flash flooding, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, small hail
SOME PEOPLE — Storms, heavy rain, brief localized flooding, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, up to quarter-sized hail
VERY FEW PLACES — Heavy rain, localized flooding, wind gusts exceeding 65mph, up to quarter-sized hail, a tornado (up to EF3 in strength)
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Cloudy with showers and storms likely. Some storms may be severe. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Tonight
Showers. Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Some thunderstorms may be severe in the evening. Lows in the lower 40s. West winds 15 to 20 mph, becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Much cooler with highs in the lower 50s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Colder with lows around 35. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the upper 40s.
Washingtons Birthday
Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. Not as cool with lows around 60.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
Wednesday
Partly sunny with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 80. Chance of rain 30 percent.
I know this may, in fact, be a day that warrants being labeled as a ‘First Alert Severe Weather Alert’ day, but I cannot count the number of days that have been declared this in just the last couple of months. When you were at WDAM, it was few and far between and, when you DID, people paid attention. If this keeps up, I can see the ‘boy who cried wolf’ scenario happening. Out of the last 10 times, it seems that only 3 or 4 actually panned out.