We’ve got a relatively active weather pattern during the next few days. That’s not to say there will be a ton of severe weather like we’ve seen in other parts of the country, but we will have our shot for storms here and there.
It looks like the storms will start for us as we move through the overnight hours tonight. During the day today, we may see a few isolated storms try to develop, but we should have enough of a cap of warm air aloft to keep most storms from developing.
As the evening progresses, starting around 9p, the likelihood of severe storms will rise, particularly along and to the south of the I-20 corridor. And truly the chance will increase around 11p.
Storms will be moving in from parts of Texas and Louisiana.
Right now it look slike a little cluster of storms will blitzkrieg through the area between about 11p and 5a. These storms could get quite intense with the possibility of very strong winds up to 80 mph and large hail up to the size of golf balls. Brief tornadoes are also possible but not highly likely.
Some of you guys are probably wondering what the Updraft Helicity Streaks are showing. For others, recall that the UH Streaks are when we ask the computer to find us where it thinks the strongest storms will be, And then it paints a line of intensify on a map. The computer isn’t always the best at specific placement, but it usually does a good job at “ballparking” things.
That map is below.
Notice a decent swath of UH streaks across parts of southern Mississippi and into Lower Alabama. In this case, I think this is indicating where the strongest storms will be that feature very strong wind gusts and hail. As mentioned, the tornado threat should be low, but won’t be zero. If there is a tornado risk, it will be where the cluster of storms has a notch and where it is not outflow dominant. This is something that will need to be monitored with radar trends and can’t be specifically predicted yet.
While the storms are expected to move quickly, they might still drop 1 to 2 inches of rain in a short time, which could cause minor flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage.
After the storms pass, the weather from Friday through the weekend is expected to be much drier. Cooler air will move in, and temperatures will be slightly below normal for this time of year, mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. The skies will generally be clear until Sunday, when clouds are expected to return.
Looking ahead to next week, the weather will get wetter as moisture increases. Early in the week, there might be enough moisture and atmospheric movement to cause more organized storms. The possibility of flash flooding will be watched closely, especially south of I-20, although it’s still too early to confirm this risk. Temperatures will start cool but will warm up to the mid-80s by midweek.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny. A slight chance for storms during the day. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. Heat index values up to 105.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Storms likely. Some storms may be severe. Humid with lows around 70. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning with clearing skies through the day. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Cooler. Less humid with lows in the upper 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 60.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Monday Night: A chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: A chance of thunderstorms. Showers likely. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
