Alright. This was likely the last one (probably for the year). No more frost. Well… most likely no more frost. I’m not going to say we are “done done” because Mother Nature has a good sense of humor. But the later into March and April we go, the more difficult it becomes to see frost down here.
No matter how many times it thundered in February.
Speaking of thunder, storms are back in the forecast.
The SPC has highlighted the area with a risk for severe weather as we move through Friday and into Saturday morning.
So far, model guidance is looking rather robust but there isn’t a ton of specific run-to-run consistency. That leaves some room for uncertainty in the specifics of the forecast.
The CIPS Analogs have been relatively consistent, though, in showing that there is the potential for some significant severe weather.
Here is a look at yesterday’s and the day before yesterday’s data. Showing that within the Top 15 analogs there are some dates on there that hold a place as some very – VERY! – significant severe weather days. But there are also days with nearly zero severe weather, too.
Today’s data shows an interesting trend where as many as 8 of the 15 analogs could be considered notable, multi-region, severe weather outbreaks. Four are more like a “day with a few severe storms possible” forecast days. And four more were in a zone in-between.
The grades were all sitting in the 11-12 range which is almost a “B” grade. nothing to dismiss. But with some of the days on there showing a more manageable severe weather potential, I think we shouldn’t be quick to assume the worst.
Looking at the CIPS data derived from an ensemble approach yeilds a much different map that isn’t quite as robust.
I think when we see this kind of spread it can tell a very important story that…
(1) historically this kind of setup is favorable for storms
(2) there is a chance that the ingredients may be in place to produce a significant severe weather day
(3) just because the ingredients are there, doesn’t guarantee severe weather given some of the low-event days
The current timeline looks to be later on Friday for the region and into early Saturday morning, but this may not be a truly ‘nocturnal’ event where storms in the area are moving through between 1a and 4a. Instead it looks more like a 7p to 3a event where you could simply ‘stay up’ till the threat passes.
But I will caution that the timeline is the most likely thing to change. So I wouldn’t bet the farm on anything related to timing quite yet. Instead, use this as a good ‘rule of thumb’ to guide you when making plans for Friday night. Or, for some folks, when talking to your teens when they are making palns for Friday night.
This is also a good time to make sure you’ve got the NickelBlock forecasting app. I mentioned to “Tapp that app” on facebook last night. And I think I need to trademark that! Jokes aside, the app will have the latest forecast info from me, the NWS and the SPC related to the severe weather potential in the coming days.
Once we get through this weekend, things should ease back as we move through the weekend and into next week.
AG FORECAST
While I continue to work on this Ag Forecast, I thought I could share some if it with everyone. So, here is a brief look at the Ag forecast for the next few days….
REGIONAL DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST
Today
Patchy frost in the morning. Mostly sunny. Not as cool with highs in the upper 60s. East winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.
Tonight
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the upper 40s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the mid 60s.
Friday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday Night
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 60. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Chance of rain 30 percent.
