Happy Friday everyone! The stormy weather is going to continue for a little bit longer, before we get back to normal.
Looking at today, we are probably going to be dealing with scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models are disagreeing on the coverage and intensity, but generally speaking, I think storms are pretty likely.
The NAM shows storms across the Western 2/3 of our forecast area, with more questionable coverage over Mobile County and Coastal Alabama. The HRRR computer model shows less storms, but I think that area of Southeast Louisiana and Coastal Mississippi is still favored to see the most rain today.
With very slow storm motions, some areas could pick up a good amount of rainfall as the storms move across the region, from South to North. The NAM computer model would suggest that the areas with the heaviest rain may see up to 1” of rain, but most everyone should see a solid ¼ – ½” of rain, keeping in mind that areas West of US 49 are more likely to see those amounts.
Today and tomorrow, the WPC has our area outlined in a Marginal Risk of flash flooding, which is the lowest category. That just tells us that isolated flash flooding may occur, but is not a major threat.
Thanks to the rain, we should see a nice day temperature wise. Highs should stay in the mid-to-upper-80s, pretty similar to yesterday. Areas along the Gulf Coast will probably be even nicer thanks to the sea breeze cooling things off.
Speaking of the coast, as an aside point, the rip current risk for the beaches has decreased from earlier in the week. Our beaches in MS/AL still have a Moderate (2/3) rip current risk for today, but that decreases to Low (1/3) for the remainder of the next week. Surf height also drops from 2’ today to 1’ into the weekend, so beach conditions are improving moving into the next couple of days.
The upper level pattern is finally changing, with the pesky low pressure that’s been bringing us this unsettled weather over in Northern Mexico. However, as that pulled away, a trough deepened over the East Coast (the red dashed line), putting us in a period of “Northwest flow”. This generally brings unsettled and wet weather, as disturbances ride around the edge of a major ridge. We’ve talked about this earlier in the summer, and this is another time that we’re going to deal with it.
This means that, through tomorrow, we’re going to have frequent storm chances. The good news is that tomorrow’s future radar doesn’t look nearly as busy or wet, so most areas should stay dry.
Skipping ahead to Tuesday morning, the ridge looks a lot stronger over our area, suppressing rain chances during the early portion of next week.
With flow coming out of the North, we are going to see dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere. As I alluded to last time, this means that any storms that do form have a greater chance of producing strong wind. Dry air on top of humid air leads to increased DCAPE, a variable which leads to strong wind gusts in thunderstorms.
The ridging means that storms are less likely to form, so it’s tough to give it a percentage. The storms that do form could be stronger, so the main advice would just be to pay attention to statements issued by the Weather Service.
Overall, over the next week, we’re looking at drier than average conditions, though the next few days will be much wetter than the next ones. The GEFS cannot detect individual thunderstorms, or tell you the rainfall you might see on your street, but this signals that the area-wide rain event should be ending soon, and we’re more likely to be drier soon, once we get through today.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy, with a 70-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-to-upper-80s.
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy, with a 50-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the upper-80s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a 40-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs around 90F.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a 30-percent chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the lower-90s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy, with a 40-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the lower-90s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy, with a 50-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs around 90F.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a 60-percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper-80s.
With the exception of today and next Wednesday and Thursday, your rain chances are HIGHLY inflated.