Upper-level ridging has persisted across the western and central U.S. the past few days and is expected to continue throughout the next 7 days. This will keep the majority of the western and central states dry with monsoonal moisture as an exception near the four corners. On the other hand, the Southeast will experience heavy rainfall the next several days which will help the drought that has developed there.
The drier weather in the western half of the U.S. is associated with the ridging that currently dominates most of the CONUS. Meanwhile lower-than-average heights remain in the Northeast keeping temperatures relatively cooler, but are expected to increase within the next 7 days. The Southeast will have its fair share of rain this week as a weak disturbance and upper-level trough linger over the region.
Southeast Tropical Rainfall and Southwest Monsoon
Southerly flow will cause plenty of Gulf moisture to advect into and across much of the Southeast the next few days where an upper-level trough and Gulf disturbance will aid in creating lift in the atmosphere. This, combined with sufficient instability from diurnal heating will create heavy rainfall and intense downpours from thunderstorms capable of producing rainfall rates of 2″ and hour. Weak flow aloft will cause these storms to move slowly and possibly remain over the same area for an extended period of time. Flash flooding and flooded roadways are all on the table, so please remember to turn around, don’t drown!
This rainfall will help improve the moderate and severe drought conditions in the Southeast. Additionally, parts of the four corners will receive rainfall as the SW Monsoon continues and brings some relief to the extreme drought. Despite the large-scale ridge over the western/central U.S., embedded troughs and diurnal instability will fuel afternoon/evening shower development. Although the flooding risk is minimal, forecasted soundings indicate dry air in the low levels which will allow for dry microbursts beneath and around any rain. These microbursts can be hazardous to aviation activities and any loose items outdoors.
Above Average CONUS Temperatures
As the subtropical ridge continues to sit in place, the majority of the central/western U.S. will experience above-average temperatures for at least the next 7 days while the eastern half remains near or below average. The East will still be seasonably warm with widespread 80s and 90s, but thanks to lower heights in the Northeast and the unsettled weather in the Southeast, temperatures will generally stay near the norm for now.
Looking ahead, a large portion of the U.S. will experience above average temperatures as the 500mb ridging persists. The northern tier of the Great Plains will likely experience above average temperatures with parts of the Northwest and Southeast leaning below. Regardless, it’s summer, and even below-average temperatures can be hot, so make sure to take care of yourself if you’re out in the heat and drink plenty of water!
