Good morning folks! Mostly sunny skies expected today with cloud coverage increasing during the afternoon/evening as a few pulsing showers and thunderstorms approach from the south. Overall precipitation coverage will remain low with the best chances for rain in the southern portions of the forecast region. Highs will approach 93F today with dewpoints around 75F causing heat indices to reach the lower 100s – please stay hydrated today, especially during any outdoor activities!
A newly-developed area of ridging has developed across the Southeast and Western Atlantic and is expected to remain in that region for the next 7 days. This ridge will continue the onslaught of heat and moisture across the region as a tropical wave/inverted trough is currently drifting westward through the Gulf. This feature may bring some higher rainfall amounts across the Gulf Coast, but is not expected to affect the forecast region.
Despite the uncomfortable moisture at the surface, precipitation totals are expected to remain relatively low across SE MS and SW AL this week primarily due to the sinking air created by the subtropical ridge; however, a cold front will approach late Friday and is expected to stall north of the region causing stormier weather.
The above image is the forecasted vertical velocity at the 700mb level Friday afternoon, depicted by the brighter colors where I drew a stationary front. Vertical velocity (lift) at the 700mb layer is a key indicator for clouds and precipitation, especially when low-level moisture at 850mb (below 700mb) is high, which will be plentiful upon arrival of this cold front. Cooler northerly winds being met by warmer southerly winds creates convergence and is responsible for the vertical velocity and stormier weather being forecasted later this week. Otherwise, enjoy your week and stay cool in this heat!
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat Index values around 103F.
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation 10-percent.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat Index values around 105F.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.
Thursday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat Index values around 106F.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Friday
Mostly sunny with a 60-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Saturday
Partly cloudy with a 60-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.
