Subtropical ridging to bring above-average temperatures, severe thunderstorms possible: SW MS Weather Forecast – 7/21/22

Good morning folks! The sweltering heat continues today with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid 90s. Additionally, dewpoints will range from 72F-76F causing heat indices to climb above 105F and possibly reaching 110F. On the bright side, winds from the southwest at about 5mph to 10mph with some higher gusts will help you feel slightly cooler, and an evening thunderstorm may help cool things off. Regardless, it is recommended that you take frequent breaks while staying adequately hydrated, especially during prolonged outdoor activity.

GFS 500mb Temperature, Height, & Wind // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The U.S. weather pattern continues to be characterized by subtropical ridging with an area of high pressure at 500mb located near the Four Corners. The ridge is becoming less amplified than it was last week and is transitioning into a more progressive (west-to-east) orientation. The area of high pressure is also expected to shift towards the southeast keeping temperatures slightly above average in southwestern Mississippi for at least the next 7 days.

Severe Weather Outlook for Thursday, 7/21 // Courtesy: NWS Storm Prediction Center

A slight risk for severe weather has been issued for parts of the Southeast, including the extreme northern parts of the SW Mississippi forecast region while the majority of the region is in a marginal risk. A weak cold front is expected to push through a very moist and unstable atmosphere over the region this afternoon/evening causing a severe wind threat in any stronger thunderstorms that develop; however, overall precipitation coverage will be low today so you can consider yourself lucky if you do receive rainfall.

HRRR Temperature Forecast, 1pm to 11pm CT // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

This cold front will be too weak to bring any significant relief from the heat, but any storms that it creates have the potential to lower temperatures by 10F-to-15F! The above loop depicts how the thunderstorms could lower temperatures this afternoon and evening, as rain-cooled air flows outward from the storms. Overall, a hot week is ahead of us and it will be important to stay hydrated and cool each day!


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Day to Day Forecast

Today
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat Index values around 105F.

Tonight
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, clearing by midnight. Lows in the mid 70s.

Friday
Partly cloudy with a 60-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat Index values around 105F.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.

Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat Index values around 105F.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.

Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 90s.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.

Monday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s.

Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.

Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s.

Tuesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.

Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s.

Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.



Author of the article:


Gabriel Taylor

Gabriel Taylor is an upcoming Junior studying Meteorology at Florida Institute of Technology. He enjoys forecasting and watching the weather whether it be in his hometown in New Jersey or at school in Florida.