Good morning and happy Thursday everybody! If you’ve been following the weather story so far this week, heat is the number one weather headline, and I’m sure its been noticeable. Since that is our major concern for weather this week, we will jump straight in and discuss the oppressive heat that is to come.
This graphic has been shared before from the NWS by previous interns, but I think it is important to reiterate the extreme heat potential over the next couple of days.
This graphic from the NWS is an excellent way to break down the heat for today and through the rest of the weekend. For much of southwest Mississippi, today will feature heat indices in the 106-to-110F range. Portions closer to the border of Louisiana could see higher indices above 110F. For Friday through Saturday, the heat will remain with the significant risk (heat indices up to 115F) extending further south closer to Vicksburg.
When we look at the current synoptic or big-picture weather features, we can make out why these high temperatures and heat indices are currently affecting our area, and why it will continue throughout the week and into the weekend.
Currently, a broad upper-level ridge centered over Arkansas is providing our region with increased heights. These increased heights generally mean higher temperatures. This translates into high temperatures in the low to mid-90s with suppressed convection activity over the next couple of days.
However it is not just the temperatures that lead to the heat advisories and warnings being issued. While there is a full explanation of the criteria on the NWS website, another major factor needed for the warnings is the high moisture content in the atmosphere leading to the “feels like temperatures” or heat indices remaining elevated for a long period of time.
The graphics above show precipitable water values close to and above 2 inches at times. At the surface, this high moisture along with the upper-level ridge elevating temperatures leads to the requirements for heat advisories and warnings through the rest of the week and into the weekend. While no significant storms or precipitation is expected, it is important to note that with high moisture in the atmosphere any storms that pop-up have the potential to bring localized flooding!
In terms of precipitation, the chances don’t become significant until Sunday when the region will be under more northwesterly flow, allowing a frontal boundary to move in from the north towards our forecast area.
This frontal boundary moving in from the north will allow for more organized precipitation to move into our area. While our region is not in any sort of extreme drought, rain is always appreciated as it allows for temperatures to cool down and gain some relief from the heat! The frontal boundary will also have to be monitored moving forward, as right now it looks to start deteriorating as it moves into our area, leading to more scattered rather than widespread precipitation.
The main message for everyone is to remain hydrated and try to remain indoors as much as possible during the afternoon where temperatures and heat indices will be the highest!
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-90s with heat indices up to 110F. Chance of rain 30-percent. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy with lows in the mid-70s. Wind calm.
Friday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-90s with heat indices up to 108F. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the mid-70s. Wind calm.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices up to 109F. Chance of afternoon thunderstorms and showers 30-percent. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows in the mid-70s. Chance of rain 40-percent. Wind calm.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid-90s. Wind northwest at 5-to-10mph. Heat indices up to 102F.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid-70s. Wind calm.
Monday
Sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-90s with heat indices up to 105F.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the mid-70s.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-90s with heat indices up to 105F.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid-70s.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat indices up to 105F.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid-70s.
