Looking toward the weekend, an intriguing scenario is currently unfolding for the Texas panhandle. As another area of low pressure is digging itself into the southwest it’s increasing the chances for precipitation for the high plains.
Only, this time, it won’t be falling as snow. Well, at least not to start. Promise.
Scenario
Friday Afternoon
As an area of low pressure shift to the southwest United States it will change the flow of the upper atmosphere from zonal (west to east) to southwesterly. This change, along with a moderate moisture return, is setting the stage for the Texas panhandle’s first severe thunderstorm event of 2013.
As the low tracks from the southwestern United States into southeast Colorado and into Kansas on Friday and into Saturday, it will increase the chances for severe weather through warm air advection, an eventual increase in instability, increasing wind shear and eventually a cold front.
A Quick Breakdown
Looking at all of the models right now I tend to think that Friday will be the most active day for most of the Texas panhandle. There is a chance that some of our eastern counties could see another round of thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon, but those chances are quickly diminishing, so for now, I’ll focus on Friday.
(green=300 // red=600)
The main threats with this round of severe weather are high wind and hail. But with the way things are looking an isolated tornado is also possible.
Models are suggesting the dryline will set up on a north-south line from Dalhart to Friona. Perhaps, a little further east. The highest CAPE Values will be located between Tulia and Stratford in the afternoon. Bulk shear will be above 40kts across the entire area with low-level shear above 40kts as well.
As it looks right now, based on model guidance, storm initiation will be Friday afternoon around 3pm – 5pm. That is when the first few isolated supercell thunderstorms will begin to take shape. As the evening presses on, the storms will move from southwest to northeast across the Texas panhandle. A line of cells will fire behind the isolated supercells and move from east to west through the night and into Saturday morning.
As we head into the overnight hours, the low-level jet will kick in and feed these storms, keeping them alive into Saturday morning as they move to the east.
Again, that is based on computer weather model guidance from Wednesday afternoon. A lot can change between now and Friday, so please check back for updates.
