I’m finally getting to a point where I feel comfortable sticking a flag in the sand and make some sort of declaration about the weather for the upcoming weekend and into next week. That said, there isn’t any kind of overwhelming data that guarantees anything. So, before I get too excited, do know that this forecast is far from set in stone.
But let’s take a look at the forecast for the region…
The rain
Before we get to the cold, the rain that continue to pass along the stationary boundary dagging south is a concern. The potential for localized flooding may continue through Friday for parts of the region.
The WPC is forecasting an additional 1″ to 3″ of rain to fall across the region.
That said, the model data yesterday only supported a forecast for up to 2″ of rain during the day on Thursday, and many places surpassed that mark before the sun ever came up. And, as of this writing on Thursday at midday, there are spots with more than 7″ of rain.
And hi-res guidance is showing that during the next 48 hours up to an additional 2″ to 4″ may be possible.
So it is worth noting that if you live in a flood-prone area and have already picked up a fair amount of rain… your first concern may be the potential for flooding. Please keep an eye on the ditches, streams and local rivers during the next 48 hours.
Then some cold
Taking a look at the data during the past few days has been an overload of bologna.
But things are getting better.
The GFS has continued to be the aggressive model, spilling sub-freezing – and at times sub-zero – air toward the Gulf Coast. In recent runs, it has pulled back on the aggressiveness of the cold, while other models that kept temperatures around freezing, like the ECMWF, have trended colder.
Take a look at the numbers for Tuesday morning:
While the two models still have a fair amount of spread within the main bowl of cold, there seems to be some agreement as to the edge of the cold air – somewhere slicing through the midsection of Alabama. Just how cold, specifically, the air is behind that…. is still up for some fine-tuning.
But I’m starting to get pretty confident in the potential for sub-30-degree air to take over by Tuesday morning for most spots. And, to be honest, the potential for sub-25-degree air for many spots along and north of I-20.
For the places that end up in the sub-25-degree area, the potential for pipe-bursting cold would develop.
For more information on pipe-bursting, check out my write up here
On top of that, Monday night and into Tuesday would be a night to check on folks that don’t ahve easy access to heat, a night to bring the pets in and a night to protect your plants.
Making the switch from rain to cold
Things get interesting for next Monday and into Tuesday. And this is where the forecast become challenging. So far, this is the best estimate I can give, given the available data
As always, please try to avoid looking at those lines as a hard cut-off. Just because the green line is north of Mobile County, Alabama doesn’t mean you are 100-percent in the clear. This is going from likely to unlikely.
Likely does not mean certain and unlikely does not mean zero chance.
The storm track for the system next Monday will dictate who sees what type of precip and that system is still outside our range to get direct observations from weather balloons. So it is difficult to nail down a specific forecast.
Will I see snow?
Probably not. In fact, most likely not.
This particular situation is not great for making snow. The cold air that is set to dive toward the Gulf Coast is only near the surface and doesn’t extend very high up into the atmosphere.
Even on the GFS model, the coldest model, temperatures will be well-above the freezing mark across most of the region. The only places that may – and even that is still questionable – see snow are on the NW side of that bright blue line.
If any wintry precip occurs, this would be a freezing rain or sleet event, a lot like what Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and the rest of the plains received yesterday.
Caveats
There are so many. Too many to truly make a complete list.
The biggest one I can point to, though, is that the model data continues to move the big push of cold air back every day. And that is something that really lowers my confidence level for any type of wintry precip or cold air invasion.
Recall last week around February 3rd, when the cold air was going to get here Monday, Feb 8th? Then it was Wednesday, Feb 10th. Then Friday, Feb 12th. Then Monday, Feb 15th. Now it is Tuesday, Feb 16th.
When the model data continues to push it back every day, it often indicates a feedback loop is creating a run-away cooldown within the model. And that cooldown rarely ends up being as cold.
That is why my forecast continues to be a bit different than other outlets you may see. I’m not putting together a forecast from raw model data, I’m trying to also use experience as a guide.
The Bottom Line
Rain will stick around for another 24 hours as on-and-off showers, at least. At times, heavy rain will be possible, too. Thunder and gusty wind may occur in some of the heavier rain, too. Most of the precipitation will be closer to the Gulf. The farther north you go, the drier it will get.
After the rain, colder temperatures filter into the area Friday, into the weekend and we get another reinforcing shot of colder air next Monday behind a cold front. The transition from colder to even colder will bring a chance for precip. Whether that precip is liquid or frozen will depend on your location relative to the storm track. And the storm track is still an unknown. But there is a potential for many spots to see some sort of wintry precip.
For now, please keep up with the forecast. As things come into better agreement and we get a better handle on things, we will continue to update you on what to expect!
