For those of you who like the snow, you’re going to love this forecast. For those of you who aren’t fans… Buckle up.
Scenario
The next system is headed our direction and as it gets closer and closer it is looking increasingly more moist. And with the cold air in place, plus the chance for more cold air to be funneled in behind a cold front, it’s looking like snow is in the forecast for Amarillo and the surrounding areas.
And we’re not talking about a few flakes anymore. In the past 24 hours the computer weather models – all of them, in fact – have increased our opportunity for snow.
Currently, when you look at all of the models and compare data outputs to historical records, climatology and a “gut feeling” it is hard to not lean toward a snowy start to your next work week.
A Quick Breakdown
Precipitation will start to fall as a rain or a rain/snow mix Sunday afternoon and evening in some of our northwestern counties. The mix will quickly change over to all snow as a cold front sweeps through and ushers in much colder air. By the time Sunday turns to Monday the rain will turn to snow.
As it looks right now, your Monday morning commute will be quite white. Latest models suggest snowfall amounts between 2″ and 4″ northwest of a line from Hereford to Pampa – which does include Amarillo.
By the time you head home Monday night, latest projections show between 3″ and 7″ of snow for Amarillo and higher totals north of a line from San Jon to Wheeler.
A Complete Look: For The Wx-Curious
Tomorrow morning winds from the south and southeast will begin pumping in a decent fetch of moisture (though, with how strong the upper-level low will become as it pushes through, low-level moisture return will not be an issue).
The winds will abruptly switch to the north and northwest in the afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes through the area. The wind will remain gusty overnight. Sustained winds between 10 and 20mph will be likely. As we head toward the morning hours, sustained winds will increase to 15 to 25mph in Amarillo with sustained winds near 40mph in our northwestern counties.
The wind won’t be the only concern. As stated above we will start to see precipitation during this time period as well. The rain or rain/snow mix by this time will be all snow. The snow and wind will make for blizzard or near-blizzard conditions.
And yes, the precipitation will be reaching the ground. As seen to the left, relative humidity levels will promote precipitation to the surface and not falling as verga. The graphic to the left shows levels between 70-percent and 95-percent area wide.
And, based on the available moisture levels, we are looking at snow that could be heavy at times. Even here in the city.
A quick note, look at the bulb of blue in parts of eastern New Mexico in the humidity graphic. That is humidity in the 40-percent to 50-percent range.
Right now, it’s looking like if you are living to the west of Tucumcari, there is a shot that you might be spared from the really heavy stuff as the available moisture will be relegated to the west of the Texas/NewMexico state line across the central and north Texas panhandle.
The track of this storm is also something to note. Like we always say if a closed low (you can tell a closed low by the full circle depicted by the isobars) can travel to our south, it will often wrap in moisture while also ushering in cold air. And in turn, we get snow.
Okay, but what are we looking at for snow.
The European weather model paints a “lighter” snow picture than any other forecast models, but it still manages to paint in a chance for 2″ to 6″ of snow for the city of Amarillo and points east. The animated graphic to the right shows 3-hour snowfall totals. The first shade of purple is one inch, the second, lighter, is two inches the third lightest shade is 3 inches in the past three hours.
What that graphic doesn’t show is the quick band pushing through Sunday into Monday. Instead what that shows is wrap-around moisture – which it suggests will offer us the greatest snowfall totals.
The NAM might be the most aggressive with snowfall totals. It paints in between 3″ to 6″ in the city with upwards of 12″ to 18″ to the north and east.
I think the NAM is currently handling this storm’s track the best. And because of that, I tend to believe the snow totals to most. In saying that, I tend to also think it is being a tad agressive.
And notice the discrepancy between the Euro and the NAM. The Euro paints in snowfall for the southeastern panhandle while the NAM keeps all of the snow north.
But that’s not all, folks.
Our in house RPM computer weather model is really caking it on.
It suggests that Amarillo has a chance for between 2″ and 8″ of snowfall. Places like Pampa, Miami and Perryton with a chance for 12″ to 16″ of snow! And Liberal with a shot for 16″ to 20″ of snow!
Now, again, I think the RPM is also being a little agressive. But this has the makings of being a potentially dangerous event.
Synopsis
As it looks right now, I’m thinking 3″ to 7″ of snow for the city of Amarillo isn’t out of the question. Between 5″ and 10″ for our northeastern counties is possible, too. While I think those forecast totals will change slightly, I think that is where most of us will be on Monday night as this storm exits.
Keep in mind we are also talking about winds from the north at 20 to 30mph gusting to 50 and 60mph during the day on Monday while this snow is falling. That will create blizzard or near-blizzard conditions during the day.
If you have plans to travel on Sunday, Monday or Tuesday I highly suggest postponing said plans.
Now, as we move through the day tomorrow the picture will become even clearer, so please check back often for updates.
During the morning on Monday I will have a Google+ Hangout open and we will be live-streaming to Youtube, so if you are away from a TV but that an internet connection, you will still be able to get a forecast!
