Leslie left this comment on a post from Tuesday morning. If you’ll allow it, I’d like to reshape her comments and questions. Leslie asks:
Evidence shows the virus can last on a surface, invisibly, for 17 days. How can we fight a virus we can’t see that can lay dormant for so long? Especially considering the person can pass along said virus before they even know they are sick. And people can remain contagious for up to 15-plus days, even after they recover! I feel completely and utterly defeated and overwhelmed by all of it
How do we beat it
Before I answer, I need to ask a favor. I want to ask that for the moment you assume (we’ve all learned about assumptions lately, haven’t we) that money doesn’t exist. The stock market isn’t a thing. Bills have gone the way of the dinosaur. Food is easily accessible and free.
With these assumptions, how do we beat this?
Well, since everyone has easy access to food, no one has bills to pay, we would all just practice social distancing for a month and allow those with the virus to fight it off. Doctors and medical professionals have found that most people can fight off the virus within 14 days, but are still contagious for an additional length of time (a specific length hasn’t been determined by researchers yet).
But the medical professionals have found that people can fight this virus and beat it. So we could simply wait for people to do that. Sure, it may still spread betwen some people, but the overall spread would be very, very, very low compared to not doing anything about it all.
So, we would just wait until the last person didn’t show any signs of being able to pass the virus along, and then once everyone was given a clean bill of health, we would all go back to work and life as we know it.
Okay, so now we know that we can beat it. There is an avenue to success.
But Nick, that is stupid. That isn’t an actual possibility. Money does exist, people have bills, we have to work, and food isn’t free
Yes! You are absolutely right. But this does show that there is a solution. It may not be easily feasible, but it does exist. The first goal in trying to “solve for X” is to figure out if “X” is an actual number.
And, in this case, it is. We know what the perfect solution is and we even know how to get there. But we also know life isn’t that easy. So now, as a society, we have to decide where to poke into that example. Where to add and subtract from the equation, in order to get a solution that works for everyone.
Lawmakers matter
This is where the people who make the laws and decide our rules really, really matter. Because one extreme solution may be, “Change nothing and let people who die from this virus, just die.” Another extreme idea may be, “We don’t want anyone to die from this virus, so let the people who are unprepared for this event suffer.”
Two extremes. But both would fit into the above example for “success” of riding the world of this virus. People who got it would either fight it off or die. Or no one would get it, but those who were not prepared for this event would likely suffer their own consequences with no food, medicine, etc.
So it is up to lawmakers to come up with a solution that balances those two extreme options. Without compromising anyone.
It is a difficult task.
That is why we elect people to be our leaders, because we believe in them to solve these problems (hopefully that is why you vote for people). And our hope is that these leaders listen to evidence from experts to come up with a solution.
There is hope, I promise
Reminder, I’m not a doctor, a medical professional, nor a true mathematician. I don’t have all of the answers. Or any answers. All I can offer is a hypothesis based on what the medical professionals are suggesting.
Getting back to Leslie’s question, the hope is that people recognize the true ease of fighting this virus: Avoid direct, indirect-but-close, and secondary contact with others. And stay home when possible.
— Avoid direct contact: No high fives with strangers, no handshakes with friends, to hugs to grandparents, no chest bumps, fist bumps, elbow bumps.
— Avoid indirect-but-close: Avoid people who are coughing, don’t walk too close to people in public (in case they sneeze or cough), don’t be a close-talker, and keep a 6-to-12 foot radius around you clear at all times.
— Avoid secondary contact (I don’t think this is an official term, but I couldn’t find the official term for it): Don’t touch things that others have touched if they are coughing or have a fever, don’t lick toilet seats (yes, that was a thing, apparently), when you go shopping for food or are out and about picking up supplies avoid touching unnecessary things and wash your hands before touching anything you own (cell phone, front door, face). And if you can’t wash your hands before touching those things (say, your car keys), then wash those things – and your hands – the next time you get a chance.
— Stay home when possible: To avoid all of those things, it is easier to just stay home whenever possible.
By doing those things, you make it very difficult to pass the virus along. Sure, some people may still pass it to another person, this isn’t perfect. But it is a big help.
Because if you are sick (and don’t know it) but don’t come into direct, indirect, or secondary contact with anyone, you’re far less likely to infect anyone else.
If you are not infected, and don’t come into direct, indirect, or secondary contact with anyone you are far less likely to become infected.
And it is up to every next person – personal accountability – to do their best to limit their exposure. For their health and the health of others. It doesn’t need to take sweeping legislation nor divine intervention. It takes patience and perseverance. And caring for your fellow humans.
How long we talkin’ Nick?
Given the scientific evidence: A while. Longer than just this past week. Likely more than two weeks (given the new evidence showing that the virus can live on surfaces for up to 17 days and recovering people can still be contagious). Possibly up to four weeks? A chance it could take two months. A smaller chance it takes even longer. Estimates are different from every next expert. And I’m not smarter than any of them, so I can’t answer that.
Math can give us some hints. In statistics, the higher the skewed distribution goes (more people infected), the longer it takes to get back to zero.
What I can tell you is that nearly every expert (that I’ve come across) agrees with this: The determining factor for how long social distancing will continue is how soon people start taking appropriate action.
This is why some cities are issuing “shelter in place” orders. To keep people from physically interesting with each other.
There is still a problem, but it is beatable
Social distancing doesn’t fix everything. There will still be people who transmit it to another person. Things happen. You know, someone will touch a handrail that a sick person touched, and the healthy person will get something in their eye and tough their eye without thinking about it. A kid will run to the mailbox and open it even though the sick mailman (he doesn’t know he is sick yet) touched it after he sneezed, infecting the kid, who then gives it to his parents.
It will happen.
But, according to the healthcare experts and medical researchers, it will “Slow the Spread” considerably. And allow those with a strong immune system to beat it without passing it on to others with weaker immune systems. It will keep hospitals from being overrun with sick patients. And it will protect healthcare workers from getting sick themselves.
And that, according to the experts, is how we beat this thing.
