Hey guys, Nick Lilja here. You know that guy who is always happy to level with you and keep it 💯. Well, I’m back to update you on something that isn’t likely going to happen.
If that sounds odd, sadly it isn’t. Most of my Summer is spent debunking all the weather-related stuff that other people try to scare you with on the internet.
Why? Because I like you 👍 and want you to be happy this Summer 😃 not stressed 😰.
Today’s Edition is “Memorial Day Gulf Coast Cat 3 Hurricane” isn’t likely.
Always Be Prepared
Sure. It is sound advice. But we have played this game before. Back in 2019 model guidance was showing a Central American Gyre style system developing and drifting into the Gulf around the same time of year.
It turned out, in that case, not much happened. But could it this time?
Model guidance is a bit torn. The GFS, much like back in 2019, seems pretty intent on something trying to develop. It goes a bit crazy and shows a lot of quick development.
But it is just one model. The Euro model doesn’t really show anything.
So which one is right? How do we cut through the riff-raff?
Teleconnections! We can look at more than just the model guidance. Instead, we can look at the big picture of the atmosphere to see if it could even support such an event. Teleconnections aren’t perfect, but the do a good job at helping to give a good foundation of what may or may not be possible.
Whaddya see?
Looking at a few teleconnections – the AO, NAO, ABNA, EAWR, and EPO – we can get an idea about what the atmosphere looks like right now. These values have very little meaning to simply look at. It isn’t like temperature or pressure. But when used in concert against past events, they can give you insight into what may be and what is not really possible
| AO | NAO | ABNA | EAWR | EPO | |
| 5/12/2022 | 3.407 | 1.844 | 1.948 | -0.687 | 0.335 |
Now we can take a look at what the model guidance thinks things will look like int eh seven days leading up to when the tropcial system is supposed to be in the Gulf.
| AO | NAO | ABNA | EAWR | EPO | |
| 5/16/2022 | 0.28625 | -0.1815 | 0.223 | -0.8995 | 0.33775 |
| 5/17/2022 | 0.22375 | -0.45275 | -0.4495 | 0.156 | 0.5125 |
| 5/18/2022 | 0.7945 | -0.176 | -0.3045 | 1.58075 | 0.31375 |
| 5/19/2022 | 1.21225 | 0.165 | -0.11275 | 1.42025 | -0.18925 |
| 5/20/2022 | 1.214 | 0.2625 | 0.07025 | 1.138 | -0.8355 |
| 5/21/2022 | 0.99125 | 0.334 | 0.61725 | 1.54825 | -0.95775 |
| 5/22/2022 | 0.5785 | 0.2425 | 1.3185 | 1.676 | -1.04475 |
Again, I know these are just numbers on a page, so lets take a look at what those numbers look like when they make a surface pressure anomaly map based on analogous days in the past with similar numbers as the numbers above.
These maps are great for ID’ing where outliers may be. And a tropical system is going to be a pretty big outlier. For example, here is a look at what the same map as above looks like for Hurricane Katrina.
Not too many similarities between the maps. Even if we pull up a less-than-robust tropical system, like Tropical Storm Cristobal, it sticks out.
And the teleconnections that day? On 6/5/2020 it looked nothing like either today not 10 days from now.
| AO | NAO | ABNA | EAWR | EPO | |
| 6/5/2020 | -0.7286 | -0.0276 | -1.7693 | -3.2884 | 0.4044 |
| 5/12/2022 | 3.407 | 1.844 | 1.948 | -0.687 | 0.335 |
| 5/22/2022 | 0.5785 | 0.2425 | 1.3185 | 1.676 | -1.04475 |
While these aren’t the “perfect” analogs to look at, it does paint a decent picture that things – atmospherically – aren’t exactly lined up to offer an easy period for development.
Never say never
Sure. When you try to build some analogs for Tropical Storm Cristobal, back in 2020, you do get a similar map in some sections. But this is looking at analogs. So we have to understand where the abilities of the data excell and where they come up short.
General patterns? Good. Specifics? Bad.
In this case, there are enough differences that I don’t think we should be jumping to conclusions quite yet that this potential system will be some kind of organized tropical system churning in the Gulf. In fact, I’m not really all that concerned, right now. About this thing even developing. Let alone sneaking north toward the Gulf.
Never say never, but feel comfortable in saying, “unlikely” given the current available data. As things change or develop, hopefully you guys feel good trusting me to offer you the most level-headed look at the forecast data.
