Three cold fronts during the next 10 days: Southern MS/AL/LA Weather Forecast – 11/18/21

It looks like the three chances for rain during the next 10 days are still on schedule. So if you’re making plans for this weekend, through the holiday weekend, here is how things are looking to shake out….

Today, a front will push through the region with a quick shot for showers and storms. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a few rumbles of thunder and some gusty wind is possible.

And, honestly, the graphic above is probably over-selling the rainfall today. While storms are most likely around 11am, I don’t think you could call a 30-percent chance for rain a “likely” chance for rain. IT is possible you see a few showers, but unless you are planning an outdoor picnic, I don’t think the weather will get in your way much.

That should leave the clouds exiting in time to see the Lunar Eclipse tonight! It will be the longest last eclipse in about 600 years. So, you may want to try to mosey outside overnight and take a peek,

Courtesy: weather.gov

The next front arrives late Sunday night and into Monday morning. Again, severe weather is not anticipated, but thunder, lightning and heavy rain will be possible. Because this front will be moving through overnight, it probably won’t bother too many folks.

That leaves the area dry for most of Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and , as of now, Thanksgiving.

The next front arrives on Black Friday with another round of heavy rain, gusty wind, lightning and thunder. So far, severe weather doesn’t appear likely. But if it were to develop during the next 10 days, this cold front would be the most likely to produce it.

Temperatures will be seasonable, with a few nights here and there dipping to below 40 and other days, highs near 75.



Thanksgiving Forecast

Right now, it looks like Thanksgiving will be a ‘Tweener’ day, meaning it will be ‘between’ systems. The next front looks to arrive on Black Friday, which may make Christmas (or Hanukkah!) shopping from home sound like a better idea.

Surface map from the EPS computer weather model for early Thanksgiving morning // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

That said, on Thanksgiving itself, given the surface map (above), it looks like Thanksgiving may include some warmer and more humid conditions with a ridge of high pressure to the east and a southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico.

Looking at the model guidance for precipitation, it does look like there will be rain on the horizon on Thanksgiving, but it should stay to the west during the day. LEading to a wetter Black Friday.

FORECAST:
Thanksgiving Day
Partly cloudy with increasing clouds during the day. Highs around 70. Chance for rain around 10-percent.



Day to Day Forecast

Today
Mostly cloudy at times with passing showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather not anticipated. Highs in the mid 70s. The chance of rain 30-percent.

Tonight
Partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the lower 40s.

Friday
Sunny, cooler. Highs in the lower 60s.

Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.

Saturday
Areas of frost in the morning. Sunny. Highs around 70.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Warmer. Lows in the upper 40s.

Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s. The chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday
Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Cooler. Highs in the lower 60s.

Monday Night
Mostly clear. Colder. Lows in the mid 30s.

Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.

Wednesday
Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s.



Graphical Forecast



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.