From the SPC:
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…The threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes is
expected to increase from southeast Louisiana through southern
Mississippi into southwest Alabama from late morning into the
afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be issued for this region by
17Z.DISCUSSION…This morning a coastal warm front extends from the FL
Panhandle through the MS boot heel into southeast and west central
Louisiana where it intersects a pre-frontal squall line. Widespread
clouds have been a limiting factor so far for a more robust severe
threat. However, the moist boundary layer south of the warm front is
destabilizing, primarily due to theta-e advection, but some cloud
breaks will be possible this afternoon supporting MLCAPE from
1000-1500 j/kg. The squall line will likely continue east next
several hours as it intercepts the moistening boundary layer along
and south of the warm front. Additional more discrete storms will
likely continue developing within pre-frontal confluence bands
within the destabilizing warm sector. Some strengthening of broad
southwesterly low-level jet will occur into the afternoon in
association with forcing for ascent accompanying the progressive
southern-stream shortwave trough. This will maintain sufficiently
large 0-2 km hodographs for a threat of low-level mesocyclones and a
few tornadoes, especially as discrete storms become surface-based
ahead of the line. Brief QLCS tornadoes in addition to damaging wind
will remain the primary threats within the squall line.
