Direct impacts? None. Well, almost none. As it looks right now, it is about as close to zero as a tropical system can get.
The forecast does not call for zero indirect affects. But direct impacts? Nah.
In short..
Tropical Storm Beryl is going to barely survive its trip into the Caribbean. It is unlikely it will make it much part Cuba. Especially toward the Gulf of Mexico as the main flow in the atmosphere is likely going to steer it to the north through the Bahamas and up the East Coast.
Remnant energy / moisture will split from the storm and drift into the Gulf and get pulled north into Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Friday according to the latest model guidance.
This energy / moisture may offer some slightly better chances for rain Friday and Saturday of this week. But that is about it.
In greater detail…
Beryl is already having a heckuva time holding it together. As noted by a few – very – smart tropical meteorologists, once-Hurricane Beryl never really had a chance to stay as a hurricane. Here is a tweet from 6:30 Saturday morning…
Today’s the day where a strong suppressed Kelvin wave phase destructively interferes with Hurricane #Beryl. According to my research, the window for intensification has closed and we may see Beryl decouple from convection today. pic.twitter.com/d5tMoSytIC
— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) July 7, 2018
Beryl’s short life as a hurricane came to abrupt end when a Kelvin Wave decided to play rough with it today.
The result?
Beryl can be seen in the middle toward the bottom // Courtesy: GIPHY
This may be hard to see, but today the center of rotation actually split from the main area of convection.
That was the beginning of the end for Beryl. It will continue to get stripped to peices as it enters the Caribbean. It will run into a fair amount of wind shear as well as dry air as it treks west.
But what if Beryl survives, though? Then will it hit the Gulf as a Hurricane?
The “what if” game can be a good mental exercise. Stretch the brain muscles. In this case though, as a warning, we are going to be “what if”-ing an unlikely scenario. But, ‘if’ it makes it through the Caribbean, it would be pulled north.
The main push in the atmosphere near Florida is from south to north. So anything that makes it near Cuba Florida and the Bahamas will move with that flow – to the north. So the chance the center of Beryl gets into the Gulf is officially “Unlikely” as of now.
And that “what if” is pretty iffy. As you can see on the model guidance from Tropical Tidbits, all but five of those spaghetti lines to the left (above on mobile) show Beryl tumbling into oblivion during the next two days.
Right now, the model guidance suggests that better chances for rain – perhaps – Friday and Saturday are the worst case scenario for the Gulf Coast states. That is about it. No model guidance available shows this thing holding on to much of what its got past Cuba.
It made history, though!
This is the first storm named Beryl to reach hurricane status. The previous handful of storms named Beryl were all just Tropical Storms. Oh and then there is this, too…
In terms of all recorded Atlantic hurricanes (back to 1851), #Beryl is cruising at about as low as they go, especially out east. pic.twitter.com/QQ8YmGnzUz
— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) July 6, 2018
It formed pretty close to the equator, too. That isn’t common, either.
Closing thoughts
Rest easy, friends along the Gulf Coast states. For now, Beryl doesn’t look like much of a bother at all.
