As November inches closer, the chances of tropical systems developing continues to diminish. And it is diminishing rapidly.
But we’re not out of the woods just yet. A new cluster of storms is churning through the Gulf and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 30- to 50-percent chance to develop into a tropical depression.
The latest 0z GFS computer weather model shows a zig-zaggy path during the next 16 days. But take that with a grain of salt. Most tropical forecasts aren’t very accurate past five days (120 hours)
Here is a look at the 0z GFS output with the suggest storm track in red. I’ve also marked a few points with dates. The surface wind direction is indicated by the direction of the arrow, the strength of the wind is indicated by the colors where blue/green are weaker and yellow/red are stronger winds.
Take a look:
As of this writing, the National Hurricane Center has issued this graphic:
With this information:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche are currently limited. This system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
So, it isn’t time to shift focus completely. Hurricane season lasts until November 1st, but that doesn’t mean the threat for a tropical system ends Halloween night at midnight. It might seem like a “scary” thought as we are coming up on Halloween, but the threat for tropical development continues into November. And sometimes into late November.
The Weather Underground put together a list of late season hurricanes. The latest, Hurricane Kate in 1985, hit the Florida panhandle on November 20th. As a Category 3.
So as a new cluster of storms starts to bubble up in the Bay of Campeche off the coast of Mexico, it is important to keep a keen eye on the area.
The Hurricane Hunters are set to fly into the cluster of storms Tuesday morning. We will have a better idea of the threat level then. Though, given the current state of the atmosphere, I would argue it will probably remain relatively low.
