Tropical Outlook for August 2nd, 2023; Dora in the Pacific and a Couple of Disturbances in the Atlantic

The Atlantic Basin on August 1st at 8 AM Eastern Time. // courtesy; National Weather Service
The Eastern Pacific Basin on August 1st at 8 AM Pacific Time. // courtesy; National Weather Service

Hi, everyone; I hope you are all having a great week. There is quite a lot of action in the tropical waters, so let us get into it. Looking at the Atlantic Basin, we are looking at two potential systems. One is far north and has little to no chance of development. The other system is much further south and has a chance of developing in the next couple of days. Looking at the Pacific, one system has little chance of development; however, another storm has already developed, named tropical storm Dora.

The Atlantic Basin

A GOES 17 satellite image of the Southern Atlantic on August 1st at 10:50 AM Eastern Time. // courtesy; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Looking at the Atlantic Basin, there are no formed tropical cyclones, but there are two possible development areas. The first area is located off the coast of Nova Scotia, but due to cool waters and the system merging with a frontal system, no development is expected at this time. The other area of development is located about 700 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. This area of development is expected to move in a northwest direction. Environmental conditions could be favorable for development, but dryer air and moderate wind shear (especially near the coast) is forecasted for the Southern Atlantic, which could hinder development.

700-300mb relative humidity on August 3rd, 2023. // courtesy; Tropical Tidbits

The Pacific Basin

A GOES image of the Eastern Pacific Ocean on August 1st, 2023, at 8:10 AM Pacific Time. // courtesy; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Looking at the Pacific Basin, there is more action, with a possible area of development and a fully formed tropical storm. The area of development is located over 1,000 miles off the coast of Baja, California, moving west at 5 to 10 mph. No development is expected due to wind shear and dry air aloft.

A spaghetti model showing previous storm tracks. // courtesy; Tropical Tidbits

The other storm is named Tropical Strom Dora. Dora is located at latitude 16.1 north, longitude 108.1 west, and is moving west at 14 knots (16 mph). Current winds are 60 mph (50 knots), and the minimum central pressure is 1000 MB (29.53 inHG). Current forecasts expect this system to intensify into a major hurricane by Thursday morning. The system is expected to continue westerly towards the Central Pacific. The Hawaiian Islands may see impacts from Dora; however, winds shear to the north may cause this system to move south of the Islands. If you live or are planning to travel to Hawaii in the Next week, please keep an eye on tropical storm Dora.

Extended Outlook

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the Atlantic Basin for the next 16 to 30 days. // courtesy; Strom Vista
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the Pacific Basin for the next 16 to 30 days. // courtesy; Strom Vista

Looking at our extended outlook, one thing to keep an eye on is the above-average precipitation forecasted in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Since ocean temperatures are already above-average, seeing above-average rainfall means that we could see more tropical systems develop in the next few weeks. Some areas of disturbances are expected to move off the coast of Africa, which could develop in the Atlantic. As the month of August continues, hurricane activity will only increase before peaking in mid-September.

Conclusion

Overall, much more action is expected in the Pacific this week, with the Atlantic seeing less action. The area of disturbance in the Atlantic will have difficulty developing due to the dryer air and wind shear. Tropical Storm Dora will quickly intensify into a major hurricane in the next few days and move westward, possibly toward the Hawaiian Islands.



Author of the article:


Seth Lee

Seth is a rising senior currently attending Florida Institute of Technology and is pursuing a degree in meteorology. After graduating, Seth wants to go into the forecasing sector of meteorology and will eventually pursue a graduate program. Seth is spending the summer in his home city of Denver Colorado.

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