Tropical Storm Cristobal is deep in the southern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the National Hurricane Center reports that Hurricane Hunters found that Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall near Atasta, Mexico, just to the west of Ciudad del Carmen. Afte some time along the coast in Mexico, Cristobal will pull a U-turn and head back north toward the northern Gulf Coast.
The storm continues to get better organized, despite its proximity to land. As noted by the National Hurricane Center meteorologists, the radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, shows structural “improvements” in the “central convective features, along with an increase in convective banding” on the west side of the storm. This had not been evident before this morning.
Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…18.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 15 MI…20 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES
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Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and imagery from the Sabancuy radar in Mexico indicate that the center of Cristobal made landfall in the state of Campeche just to the west of Ciudad del Carmen around 1330 UTC. Data from the aircraft and earlier surface reports indicate that the landfall intensity was about 50 kt. Now that the center of circulation has moved inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. However, the large circulation will take some time to spin down.
It is anticipated that Cristobal will weaken to a depression by tomorrow evening. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico so some re-strengthening is predicted. However, the global models show increased southwesterly shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this should limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. However, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
The storm has been moving slowly south-southeastward, or 150/3 kt. Over the next couple of days, Cristobal should move slowly in a cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre over Central America and eastern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should turn northward into a weakness in the mid-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA.
Forecast
Current Key Messages
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.
3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Model Data
Model guidance continues to show Cristobal remaining as a tropical storm, without strengthening into a hurricane.
That said, the one model that does show strengthening is the SHIPS model. And that tends to handle intensity better than some other models The SHIPS model is also the model we use to look at Rapid Intensification.
The percent-chance for Rapid Intensification, according to the raw model data, is higher than the climatological mean at every step.
And the waters in the Gulf are rather warm. Here is the Gulf of Mexico sea height anomaly. This is a map showing where the water is anomalously higher – given the expansion of the water due to heat.
Notice the patch of orange and red in the center of the Gulf. That is where Cristobal will be traveling during the next few days, once it turns around. So the idea of some kind of intensification is plausible given that tropical system feed of of the warm waters to grow.
But where does the data suggest that it will go?
Rounding up the “Usual Suspects” for model guidance, and it shows a slow turn to the north and the a nearly due-north track until Cristobal gets near the Gulf Coast.
That said, the turn to the west as it gets toward the coast is still a “To Be Determined” thing.
Model guidance shows two competing ridges of high pressure that will be steering Cristobal to the north. The ridge that is responsible for the movement north, in the guidance, is shown to lose a lot of its strength toward the time of landfall, while the ridge tot he north is still there.
The yellow arrows on the above animation show where those ridges are steering Cristobal. So as the one ridge fall apart, the other ridge takes over. And that other ridge nudges the system back to the west.
The question is, “How much of that will that happen?”
Any subtle difference in ridge strength will change the forecast track. So this will need to be monitored closely in the coming days.
The Bottom Line
If you are in the Forecast Cone you need to be taking this storm seriously. While most time early season storms are weaker and Central American Gyre-born storms are disorganized, that is not reason to shrug off this storm.
Now is a good time to double check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit. Make sure that you have all of the supplies that you will need.
Start watching your local television meteorologist for forecast updates, checking with the National Hurricane Center every morning (you can read their updates on this website), or just check back here for updates, too.
Check out in your yard (if you have one) to see how you can mitigate your flooding risk. Usually these early season storms drop a lot – I mean, a LOT – of water. Some early estimates from the model data show the potential for some places to pick up over a foot of rain from whatever may drift north, regardless of strength. So take some steps now to look around your house and figure out what may help to move water away from your home and toward storm drains, creeks, or streams.
